FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Easter Monday's EFL action.
Rotherham v Birmingham | Monday 22nd April 2019, 15:00
- Rotherham’s menacing set-piece caused Swansea plenty of problems on Friday as the Millers scored two of their three goals via Will Vaulks’ long throws.
- Rotherham fired in 16 attempts at goal at the Liberty Stadium despite enjoying only 29% of the ball. The strugglers generated 1.62 Expected Goals (xG), although conceded 3.42 xG.
- Rotherham have only lost 6/21 home games since promotion – exclude the top-five and the Millers boast a W7-D7-L2 record at The New York Stadium.
- Rotherham have only twice failed to score as hosts this season with Both Teams To Score banking in 16/21 (76%) home Championship outings.
- Rotherham’s home fixtures have averaged 3.06 xG with 14/21 (67%) breaking the Over 2.5 Goals barrier and 8/21 (38%) producing at least four goals.
- Rotherham have seen a first-half goal in 16/21 (76%) games at The New York Stadium.
- Birmingham fired in 20 efforts at goal and generated 1.67 xG at home to Derby on Friday during their 2-2 draw. Only 8 teams have had more on-target efforts this season.
- Birmingham have won only 6/21 away games this season. However, exclude the top-half and Blues boast a W4-D6-L1 record on the road.
- Birmingham will still be missing defensive midfielder Maikel Kieftenbeld. Blues have W4-D6-L12 without him since the start of season, recording 3/22 clean sheets.
- Birmingham have scored in 16/21 (76%) away days, keeping only 4 clean sheets and seeing Both Teams To Score land in 13/21 (62%) matches.
- Birmingham have seen BTTS bank in 7/11 trips to teams outside the top-10 with Blues notching at least twice in 6 of those games.
- Birmingham have seen a first-half goal in 16/21 (76%) away games in 2018/19.
Back Over 0 First-Half Goals and Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
Charlton v Scunthorpe | Monday 22nd April 2019, 15:00
- Charlton boss Lee Bowyer insists his side won’t alter their approach or preparation following Good Friday’s loss at Oxford. The defeat all but ends the Addicks’ outside hopes of automatic promotion.
- Bowyer was at a loss to explain his team’s defeat at that Kassam Stadium; Athletic conceded twice from set-pieces, won the shot count 20-7 and generated 3.10 Expected Goals (xG).
- Charlton saw Chris Solly sent off and subsequently suspended for Monday’s match, although Bowyer is hopeful Ben Purrington will recover from sickness and Igor Vetokele could also return to the fold.
- Charlton’s reverse on Friday was their first in 12 (W7-D4-L1) League One matches. They return to The Valley here, where the hosts are unbeaten since early October (W11-D4-L0).
- Charlton ended Luton’s long unbeaten run here last weekend and hold a W9-D1-L0 record as hosts against bottom-half clubs this season.
- Charlton have W17-D5-L3 at home under Bowyer, keeping 10/25 (40%) clean sheets and scoring at least twice in 14/25 (56%) outings.
- Scunthorpe were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Blackpool on Friday, conceding 16 shots and losing the shots on-target count 4-7. The Iron had only 41% of the ball.
- Scunthorpe have now W1-D3-L7 since Valentine’s Day, failing to score in 5/11 encounters and returning just W0-D1-L5 in their last 6 away days.
- Scunthorpe have lost all 5 trips to the current top-six this season by an aggregate 2-13. The visitors have conceded at least twice in 11/21 away days this season.
- Scunthorpe are ranked rock-bottom of the League One ratio rankings when viewing Expected Goals (xG), xG from open play and shots from inside the penalty area.
Back Charlton to win at 5/6 (Boylesports).
Macclesfield v Newport | Monday 22nd April 2019, 15:00
- Macclesfield have won just 3 games before Sol Campbell arrived in the Moss Rose hot-seat (W3-D4-L13. The Silkmen have since W6-D8-L9 with a points per-game improvement from 0.65 to 1.13 to move out of the bottom-two in League Two.
- Macclesfield’s 26-point tally under Campbell is only 2 points shy of Monday’s visitors Newport in the same sample, and 3 points short of play-off-chasing Colchester.
- Macclesfield have shown an attacking desire under Campbell’s watch, scoring in all bar 4 of their 23 league outings under their current boss. However, the hosts have kept just 4 clean sheets during Campbell’s reign.
- Macclesfield have therefore seen Both Teams To Score land in 16/23 League Two matches since Campbell took charge. The Silkmen have seen BTTS cop in each of their last 9 at Moss Rose (W2-D5-L2), only firing 1 blank at home under the current boss.
- Macclesfield average 1.21 Expected Goals (xG) at home and have scored in 17/21 games here across the whole campaign since promotion, 15 (71%) of which saw BTTS.
- Newport are unbeaten in 6 (W4-D2-L0) and were dominant in Friday’s 3-1 win over Bury at Rodney Parade. The Exiles have now scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 5 fixtures.
- Newport have returned back-to-back away wins (scoring 3 in each) after bagging just W1-D2-L11 in their previous 14 road trips.
- Newport’s away days are averaging 2.95 goals this season – 12 (57%) saw Both Teams To Score with the Exiles silencing only 3 of their hosts.
- Newport have generated an average of 1.27 xG away from home and only failed to score in 2 of their 11 trips to teams below them in the table.
- Only 5 League Two sides have averaged more shots on-target away than Newport.
Back Both Teams To Score at 4/5 (Betfred).
Best Bets
Rotherham v Birmingham – Over 0 First-Half Goals and Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
Charlton v Scunthorpe – Charlton to win (5/6 Boylesports)
Macclesfield v Newport – Both Teams To Score (4/5 Betfred)
