Fleetwood v Bradford: Market looks too harsh on Cod Army

FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert George Elek (@GeorgeElek) runs the rule over the League One play-off semi-final second leg between Fleetwood and Bradford.

Fleetwood v Bradford | Sunday 18:30

The market has taken the view that a 1-0 win on Thursday has put Bradford firmly in the driving seat, but I am still confident that there is value in siding with Uwe Rosler’s Fleetwood.

The Cod Army will be disappointed to concede a late goal from a set-piece, and not grab an away goal of their own, but this reverse fixture will likely be another tight affair which could go the distance.

All three games between these two teams have been won by a single goal margin by the home team (2-1, 2-1, 1-0) and Fleetwood will be hopeful that they can continue this trend.

Cod Army's biggest ever game

Bradford certainly dominated possession in the first tie but, apart from hitting the post in the first-half and the goal, they struggled to turn this dominance into chances.

Fleetwood were not at their best, but a rocking Valley Parade is not an easy place to go to and their target of keeping the tie alive was met.

The home team’s form at the Highbury Stadium is troubling, having only scored once in their previous four games there, but this is the biggest game in the club’s history and it seems unlikely that it will be met with a flat performance.

Bradford are the likely finalists, but the market makes them too short. Uwe Rosler seems to agree, saying he sees the tie poised at 60-40 in the Bantams favour. The 14/5 on Fleetwood to qualify is the value bet.