ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Everton take on Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday evening.
Everton vs Leeds | Saturday 28th November 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
One of the games of the weekend takes place on Saturday evening as Leeds travel to Merseyside to face Everton. If it’s anything like Leeds’ last trip to Liverpool in September, which saw seven goals, we’re in for a treat.
Neither side have looked solid defensively – with Everton shipping 16 goals to Leeds’ 17 so far this season– and that could mean we have an end-to-end game on our hands with both sides knowing they can get at each other’s fragile backlines.
Having said that, the home side here have the fourth most goals to their name, with 19, with much of that down to Dominic Calvert Lewin having the season of his career to date.
Leeds battered Arsenal last time out but somehow didn’t find the net – with it ending 0-0. They had 25 shots on The Gunners goal and should have taken all three points. They’ll be eager for more on Saturday and will fancy themselves up against Everton, who have conceded two goals or more to their last six Premier League opponents.
This game screams goals. We’ve seen Leeds play some excellent football this season, so fluid and quick in their transitions from defence to attack, and their pressing philosophy is only heightening their attractive play.
Everton have started well, and the Richarlison-Calvert-Lewin-James combination is proving very easy on the eye. It’s hard not to see both sides scoring here with a few goals in the game so Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at 20/23 with Boylesports looks too good to turn down.
There have been a combined 66 goals between these outfits this season, and with two of the most respected managers in the game in Carlo Ancelotti and Marcelo Bielsa going head-to-head on the touchline, we can anticipate a few goals.
Considering the gaps that will be found in midfield and out wide, we can expect a few corners and cards too. The ‘classic’ bet – as it’s famously known – of BTTS, Both Teams Over 3 Corners and Both Teams Over 1 Card is available at 15/2 with Bet365. That is a great bet to cheer on when you’re expecting a great game.
Everton’s opponents usually hit high corner stats and The Toffees should take the initiative given they are favourites, so could see some corner kicks of their own.
Referee Chris Kavanagh – who we will get onto shortly – has given both teams two or more cards in two of his six games this season – so a third – which adds another element to this bet builder. It’s always a nice one to play for some fun, so small stakes.
No player has missed more big chances in the top-flight this season than Leeds’ Patrick Bamford – with 8 missed. He still has seven goals in nine and has started the season brightly. Interestingly, of his 30 shots taken, 10 of these have been with his head (4 headed shots on target). He is 7/2 for a headed shot on target with Betfair and I like that.
Leeds average 23.6 crosses per game in the PL and Bamford hit the post with a header last week against Arsenal and 7/2 looks value given it has landed in four of his nine starts. Anything larger than 3/1 would be a bet and we’re getting that off Betfair or Paddy Power.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has the most headed goals in the league with four to his name and Betfair have boosted him to join Bamford in heading on target to 8/1 if that takes your fancy.
Referee Chris Kavanagh is not a bad appointment for this game. His stats are as follows:
- 26.33 fouls per game (3rd most of all Premier League referees).
- Given 22 cards in six games, 3.67 per game.
- Has officiated Leeds once this season, and gave them two cautions.
- Given both teams over 1 card in two out of six, in Fulham v Arsenal and Brighton v Manchester United.
Hopefully this game lives up to the hype of goals and is a good watch. It's hard to foresee a bad game with both sides so good going forward but lacking confidence defensively.
Best Bets
Everton vs Leeds – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (20/23 Boylesports)
Everton vs Leeds – Both Teams To Score, Both Teams Over 3 Corners and Both Teams Over 1 Card (15/2 Bet365)
Everton vs Leeds – Patrick Bamford 1+ headed shot on target (7/2 Betfair)
