Everton vs Burnley | Monday 13th September 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Everton will look to continue their solid start to the new campaign as they host Burnley on Monday Night Football.
The Toffees have seven points to their name under new gaffer Rafa Benitez and that’s a decent return in my book. The Spaniard has been quick to introduce his philosophy, too, with subtle blueprints of the way they are going to play showing already: low possession and a direct approach.
Everton have had the second lowest average possession in the division so far, with the only team to average lower being the visitors: Burnley. Sean Dyche’s men have Arsenal, Leicester and City in three of their next four games after this Goodison Park clash, so some points on the board on Monday would go down a treat.
And if they are to return to Lancashire with the points, they will have to compete against a team willing to play in a similar way, with lots of crosses, long balls and tackles. That points me towards the corners market where there is plenty of scope for a value bet.
Given the direct style expected in this clash, both teams to have 4+ corners looks generously priced at 10/11 with SkyBet. This has landed in every match these two have played this season, that is a lovely 6/6 of games. It’s hardly a surprise, too, given they both sit in the top half for crosses, with Burnley in 4th position with 75 crosses in three matches.
The fixture is notorious for corners, as well, with it averaging 12.25 corners across the last four seasons. This exact bet has landed in 5 of the last 8 head-to-heads, with Everton having a huge 41 flag kicks in these 8 encounters – that’s 7.5 per game on average.
Elsewhere, given that Andre Marriner is the man in the middle there is some juice in the cards market given his low cards average compared to most top tier officials. A price that stood out was Ashley Westwood at 5/1, and especially so given his opponents on Monday evening.
Westwood has 26 yellow cards in his 137 Burnley appearances suggesting a card once every five matches is to be expected, and that the 5/1 on him to be cautioned is a fair price. However, dive a little deeper and we can see that 4/26 of these have come against the Toffees, with the midfielder being booked in 4 of the last 7 head-to-heads.
Two of these have come at Goodison Park and another bizarre stat that stood out when researching is that 3 of his 4 cards against Monday’s opponents have come in exactly the 37th minute! Strange.
Westwood loves a card against Everton and will have to deal with Andros Townsend, Richarlison and Demarai Gray transitioning through midfield to attack.