CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Saturday's showdown between Everton and Brighton.
Everton vs Brighton | Saturday 3rd October 2020, 15:00 | BT Sport
Graham Potter and his Brighton side travel north to face a rejuvenated Everton team who’ve been in splendid form since the start of the new campaign.
The Seagulls can count themselves unlucky that they’ve not had a better start to the new Premier League season. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Manchester United via a penalty which was awarded after the full-time whistle *pretends to be shocked*.
Albion did however set a new record, becoming the first side ever to hit the woodwork five times in a single Premier League match. The side from the south coast more than deserved something out of the game, but luck doesn’t appear to be with them – which in itself is a worrying sign.
Carlo Ancelotti and his hosts have made a 100% start, picking up wins against Tottenham, West Brom and Crystal Palace respectively. James Rodriguez has been a revelation out wide and you could argue that he has already justified the faith shown in him by the Blues boss.
If the Toffees win again this weekend, they will have matched their start to the 1969-70 renewal when they were victorious in the first four games, a feat that acted as a springboard and saw them finish as league champions!
- Committed just 9 fouls in their only home game so far against West Bromwich Albion.
- Received 10 fouls in that fixture.
- Have received the joint lowest number of cards so far this season (2).
- Scored FIVE goals in their only previous home game this season.
- Committed 15 fouls in their sole away game against Newcastle United.
- Received 16 fouls in that fixture.
- There have been over 2.3 goals in Brighton’s last FOUR EPL games.
- Are undefeated in their last EIGHT away EPL matches.
- Everton have won all THREE of their EPL home meetings with Brighton, scoring SIX goals and conceding just ONCE.
- Brighton have never won away at Everton in all competitions, drawing TWO and losing SIX of their EIGHT visits.
- The home side has won each of the last FIVE EPL meetings. Everton with THREE, Brighton with TWO and a draw back in 2017.
- Everton are looking to win each of their opening FOUR games to a top-flight season for the first time since 1969-70 when they went on to win the title.
- Brighton are averaging 14.7 shots-per-game in the league this season, their highest rate in any of their previous Premier League campaigns. Their expected goals is also the highest in any other season (1.8 per game).
- Everton have had 59 10+ pass sequences in open play in the EPL this season – only Liverpool have had more (60).
- Jonjoe Kenny, Andre Gomes and Allan have both been ruled out for this one – the latter has been an integral part to the Toffees spectacular start to the season.
- Richarlison faces a late fitness test.
- Adam Lallana, Pascal Gross and Davy Propper are sidelined.
My first pick is for Brighton to commit Over 10.5 Fouls (17/20 Unibet). In their only other away game this season against Newcastle, they committed 15 and have shown in every match that they want to win back possession quickly.
Everton have recruited well during this window and have obtained the services of some technically brilliant players. I fancy Everton to dominate the possession, as they have done so far this season, and pen the Seagulls in their own half.
Simon Hooper is the referee for this one. In his all-time stats, he has been the referee for Brighton on their travels a total of seven times. In those games, Brighton have committed on average a total of 13.43 fouls per-game on average. This bet has landed in this fixture in two of the last three seasons.
My second bet is a Bet Builder. I really like the look of Everton to score twice or more and Brighton to pick up at least a single card. Similarly to the first bet, this one has landed in two of the last three seasons in this exact fixture.
The Toffees have played just once at Goodison Park so far this season and yet they managed to score five goals against the 10-men of West Brom, but it could’ve easily been more.
As already mentioned, Everton have invested well and have made a blistering start to the season. Although they’ll be missing Andre Gomes and Allan, they should still have enough firepower to score a couple against this Brighton side who are coming off the back of a deflating loss to Manchester United.
Brighton have picked up at least a card in 17 of their last 20 away EPL games stretching back to the beginning of last season and I expect that run to continue here.