Everton vs Aston Villa | Saturday 1st May 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
The fact that it is 1st May and these two are yet to play each other shows what a peculiar season it has been in English football.
While Aston Villa have very little to play for on the surface and are enjoying a season free of drama compared to their previous couple, Everton still have European aspirations. Going in to this match, they find themselves six points behind the Champions League places but with a game in hand.
I don’t expect a classic at Goodison on Saturday night. Across their last 10 matches there have been just 16 goals in Toffees matches and both teams have obliged on just three occasions. There have been 23 goals in Villa matches across the same time period, with the Villains only managing 10 goals themselves. Five of those have come against 18th placed Fulham and 19th placed West Brom so it is certainly clear that they’ve missed talisman Jack Grealish, who has been unable to play in any of those matches.
Grealish is missing again here and given that both sides have been better defensively than going forward in recent weeks, I think the 23/20 BetVictor are offering on BTTS No is great value.
I did consider keeping 1-1 on side but I am happy to take another big price in this encounter. I have tipped up Villa full backs Matt Cash and Matt Targett to be booked on several occasions this season and I was debating between the two again here, but Cash is 17/4 while Targett is 11/2 and the statistics this term suggest that the latter is better value.
Targett has been booked on seven occasions in 32 matches, suggesting that the price of 11/2 with SkyBet is excellent value. The only thing that puts me off slightly is that the referee Simon Hooper is quite card shy.
Hooper averages 2.5 cards a game this season, which is down on the league average of 2.91. However, I don’t think that is enough to justify a price this big when 7/2 is a fair price based on Targett’s record this term. I am therefore happy to take the 11/2 on the left back entering Hooper’s notebook.