MONDAY night football returns to our screens tonight as Everton welcome Newcastle to Goodison Park in what should be an entertaining encounter. Lucas Swain (@LucasSwain95) shares his best bets.
Everton v Newcastle | Monday 23rd April 2018, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Everton and ‘just outside the European places’ has become synonymous in footballing parlance ever since the formation of the Premier League. Whilst the Toffees have ventured into Europe on a few occasions, the blue half of Liverpool rarely find themselves above or below this region of the table come the end of the season.
This year, however, they were flirting with danger until Sam Allardyce was appointed. Whilst the former England manager who was filmed drinking a pint of wine (impressive!) was certainly an unpopular appointment, there are very few people who can argue with what he’s brought to Goodison Park.
Newcastle, Leicester and Everton are fighting it out for 8th position, and whilst that doesn’t seem like the most exciting battle, we’ve got two fairly decent Premier League sides here and finding the correct betting angle won’t be easy.
Top Six
Whilst Everton’s overall form has been rather mixed, it must be highlighted they’ve won three of their last five fixtures on home soil. However, if you delve even deeper into the form it becomes abundantly clear it’s just the top six clubs who tend to come away from Goodison with points.
Everton have lost just three times at home in seven months, with those defeats coming against Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United. However, if we take a look at Newcastle’s record against similar opposition there is the same trend.
Much has been made of Newcastle’s recent form as they try to secure a fifth win on the bounce. Moreover, they’ve defeated the likes of Manchester United and Arsenal, although considering the latter haven’t gained on the road in 2018 perhaps they’re not the benchmark.
It would be silly not to mention that their recent fortunes have come on home soil at St. James’ Park and prior to their victory at Leicester they hadn’t won away for five matches.
Once we take top six losses away from home Newcastle’s record isn’t as bad as it first reads, as they haven’t lost for six months. So, who comes out on top on this one when they both currently reside out of the top six?
The Betting
Naturally, considering all of the above, the draw must appeal given both sides have an element of strong form but once you consider home and away performances they cancel each other out.
However, I personally despise backing the draw in football matches as ultimately neither side is attempting to keep the match level. Despite this I may make an exception to the case this time.
I also wish to dab into the goal market as it’s one I’m more comfortable with. Both clubs will be keen to defeat each other here as it will go a long way to securing a top half finish. Moreover, 10 of the last 12 matches between Everton and Newcastle have seen at least three goals.
Best Bets
Everton v Newcastle – Draw (12/5 Betfair)
Everton v Liverpool – Over 2.5 Goals (6/5 10Bet)
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