EVERTON welcome Liverpool on Sunday night in the Merseyside derby. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his thoughts from the Goodison Park encounter.
Everton v Liverpool | Sunday 21st June 2020, 19:00 | Sky Sports
The Merseyside derby ends the Premier League weekend and it could be a significant one for the Reds who are on the cusp of their first title in 30 years.
It’s a shame they won’t be able to celebrate it with their fans but this team, that in all honesty, may have benefited more than most with a break, certainly deserve it for their ability to overcome almost everything that’s thrown at them.
Everton have been an improving team under the watch of Carlo Ancelotti. The former Real Madrid and AC Milan coach has spoke a good game so far and backed it up with improved results and performance data. It’s an exciting project on the blue side of the city and they’ll be trying to get to a position to seriously challenge their neighbours in the next four or five years.
Trent to pull the trigger
As far as the betting goes I’ve found it quite tough in the more generic markets. I do think Everton can pose a threat to this usually watertight defence. The Reds have sometimes struggled with physical strikers such as Troy Deeney, and in Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison the Toffees have two strikers who can cause Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez a headache.
Both Teams To Score looks a fair price to me but not really a value bet. Instead, I’m going to dive into the player props market as there’s a bet that really does pique my interest and it involves Liverpool’s superb right-back Trent Alexander Arnold.
Trent has had glowing references from pundits this season and rightly so, his crossing ability is second-to-none and his 12 assists is by far and away the best record for his side. But his dead ball ability also puts him on most free kicks for the Reds.
He averages 1.30 shots per-90 minutes and the large majority of those shots come from distance, especially with him being on free kicks. Therefore, the 19/20 available from Coral on their #YourCall market on the England man to attempt a shot from outside the box looks simply too good to turn down.
It’s a bet that’s landed in his last five league games and he’s landed two and three shots from outside the box in recent games against West Ham and Norwich. I’ll therefore have smaller stakes on the 19/4 he has two and the 22/1 he has three.
If I were to do a staking plan here I’d go 70% on one, 20% on two and 10% on three.
Best Bets
Everton v Liverpool – Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ shot outside the box (19/20 Coral)
Everton v Liverpool – Trent Alexander-Arnold 2+ shots outside the box (19/4 Coral)
Everton v Liverpool – Trent Alexander-Arnold 3+ shots outside the box (22/1 Coral)
