European NAP: Title contenders can avoid Eliteserien upset

EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) heads to Norway on Sunday evening for his latest best bet on the continent.

Ranheim v Bodo-Glimt | Sunday 22nd September 2019, 17:00

Bodo/Glimt have surrendered their position at the summit of the Eliteserien in Norway after failing to record top honours in three of their most recent four fixtures. Chasing their maiden domestic title, the Nordland outfit have now fallen three points behind pace-setters Molde as we enter the final nine games of the campaign.

Nevertheless, Kjetil Knutsen’s charges should be capable of at least avoiding defeat on Sunday evening when they travel to relegation scrapers Ranheim. Bodo have been a breath of fresh air in the Eliteserien this term with their fast-paced, all-action, attacking football thrilling Norwegian fans, and I don’t expect the Superlaget to change tact now.

Despite sitting second, Bodo boast the second-worst defence in the top-half, but can also lay claim to the division’s second-best attack. Unsurprisingly, it’s led to plenty of thrillers with a huge 3.90 goals per-game average across the Superlaget’s 21 fixtures. Knutsen’s men have only twice fired blanks and notched at least twice on 14 (67%) occasions.

However, the open nature of Bodo’s battles have ensured opponents plenty of opportunity of their own. That’s been reflected in the visitors’ paltry figure of five clean sheets, with the Nordland men also being breached at least twice on eight occasions – unusual for a team chasing the title, eh?

Still, it’s difficult to dismiss the high-flying guests here. Ranheim are only off the bottom of Norway’s top-tier on goal difference after a rotten run of results that’s included six defeats in their past eight and a solitary success in 11. Despite plummeting into the relegation reckoning, the hosts have shown plenty of intent in the final-third themselves.

The basement battlers have earned their own tag as great entertainers, especially so at their
tiny EXTRA Arena. Ranheim home outings have hit 3.70 goals per-game on average with seven of 10 crossing the Over 2.5 Goals line. The hosts only shutout here came against rock-bottom Stromsgodset and the strugglers have shipped twice or more in 8/10 (80%) at home.

Over the course of the campaign, Ranheim have registered five triumphs – two coming in 10 at the EXTRA Arena, whilst Bodo have suffered four losses in 21. Clearly I want to keep the title challengers onside but with such a high goal expectancy, it makes sense to build a goals-based angle into our approach.

Therefore, I’ll take the kind 7/5 (Betfair) quotes in the Same Game Multi market on Bodo/Glimt double chance and Over 2.5 Goals this Sunday as my European NAP.

Bodo have surpassed the Over 2.5 Goals line in 12 of their most recent 14 fixtures, as well as seven of 10 away trips, with five of those 10 games as guests even breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier. Neither team can be trusted to keep the back door shut and with a focus on the final-third, an entertaining showdown is expected with the visitors preferred.