European NAP: Sevilla to come unstuck in the capital

EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) is heading to Spain for his next best bet from the continent.

Atletico Madrid v Sevilla | Sunday 12th May 2019, 17:30

Atletico Madrid fell to just their heaviest league defeat of the season against bogey team Espanyol last weekend. Los Colchoneros went down 3-0, and in doing so missed the chance to mathematically guarantee second spot in La Liga ahead of neighbours Real Madrid.

Diego Simeone’s side have suffered only six league losses in 2018/19 but the Argentine boss was forced to vigorously dismiss suggestions that his players lacked the required desire to extend Atletico’s four-game winning streak. Returning to their Wanda Metropolitano base on Sunday, the hosts are expected to produce a much-improved performance.

As well as signing off for the season in front of their home supporters, Atletico will be desperate to say goodbye to long-term servant Diego Godin in style, and Simeone’s side appear to be underrated in the pre-match markets. The odds on offer imply this fixture would be a pick ‘em on neutral territory and that’s something I simply can’t buy into.

Of course, the prices are artificially massaged in Sevilla’s favour due to their perceived need for maximum points. The visitors are battling for a top four finish in Spain, but any seasoned La Liga follower will tell you the Andalusians have been struggling to stay afloat in the battle for Champions League football for quite some time now.

Los Rojiblancos began their campaign way back in July due to Europa League qualification commitments and Sevilla’s extra workload appears to have caught up with them in recent weeks. Last week’s savage 3-0 home reverse to Leganes was as bad as any display from the side in recent memory and was their 10th defeat in 18 league outings since early January.

Sevilla are renowned strugglers outside of their Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan base, registering W2-D4-L8 since the start of October, and suffering 20/37 (54%) defeats on the road in La Liga going back to the beginning of 2017/18. Joaquin Caparros’s charges have W1-D2-L7 against top-seven outfits this term and are easily opposable at the prices.

Remarkably, Atletico have been beaten in only eight of Simeone’s 113 home La Liga encounters with Los Colchoneros dating back to 2013/14 and with 76% of those contests featuring fewer than four goals, I’m happy to take the 5/6 (Bet365) available on the hosts in the Double Chance market alongside Under 4 Goals with Bet365’s Bet Builder feature.