European NAP: Runaway league leaders to excel in the Eliteserien

EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) heads to Norway on Sunday for his first European NAP selection of the 2020/21 campaign.

Bodo/Glimt vs Odd | Sunday 13th September 2020, 17:00

Bodo/Glimt blew a league-leading position in 2019 to finish runners-up in the Eliteserien, missing out on a maidan domestic title. But the Nordland outfit seem determined to right those wrongs this time around with Kjetil Knutsen’s troops taking a seemingly unassailable lead after 16 rounds of action in Norway’s top-flight.

The Superlaget come into Sunday’s showdown with a 10-point advantage at the top of the table, as well as a game in-hand over second-place Molde. The hosts have returned a remarkable W14-D2-L0 thus far, kicking-off their campaign with a stunning nine-match winning streak; Glimt have scored an eye-watering 56 goals across their 16 outings.

At their Aspmyra Stadion base, the Bodo boys are yet to drop points (W7-D0-L0), and going back to the beginning of 2019, Knutsen’s outfit have tabled 17 triumphs from 22 as hosts – a 77% win rate. The Superlaget have struck two or more goals in 19 of those fixtures, covered the -1 cap on 12 (55%) occasions and seen HT-FT backers land profit in 13 (59%) games.

Famed for their fast-paced, all-action, attacking football, Bodo have been a breath of fresh air in the Eliteserien over the past 12 months. All bar one of those 22 contests produced two or more goals with encounters rarely dull affairs in Nordland, with an average of 3.82 goals.

Thus far in 2020, the Glimt gang have notched at least twice in all 16 outings, striking three times or more on 11 occasions. Every single game has crossed the Over 2.5 Goals barrier with their gung-ho approach allowing opposition outfits to get on the scoresheet in 12 of those matches also; emphasising the point on entertainment for neutrals.

The raw numbers are supported by overwhelmingly impressive performance data figures too. Bodo are posting sky-high figures across all the major metrics, including Expected Goals (xG) ratio – a million miles better than any of their divisional rivals – whilst also averaging a full three shots from inside the box more than the next best Eliteserien side per-game.

Molde were comfortably dispatched 3-1 here earlier in the season, and Bodo have already been away to Odd, returning with an eye-catching 4-0 thumping. Odd have been beaten in three of seven away days already, and suffered defeats by at least two goals in both of their meetings with the league’s top-two sides and so look unlikely to match the table-toppers.

Unfortunately, the most appealing prices are evaporating on Bodo/Glimt for Sunday with Match Odds trading towards the more expected 1/2 region. However, there are ways to bolster the odds on offer and we can take 4/5 (Bet365) by chucking in Bodo/Glimt to score Over 1 Goal and Over 6 Corners into the mix. Thirteen of Bodo’s matches have seen corners angle collect.