European NAP: Champions to sign-off in style on Saturday

EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) heads to Switzerland on Sunday for his first best bet on the continent since lockdown.

Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich | Saturday 27^th June 2020, 14:30 | BT Sport

When Bayern Munich parted company with manager Niko Kovac at the start of November following an embarrassing 5-1 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt, the Bavarian giants were fourth in the Bundesliga standings. Even at Christmas, FC Hollywood had improved by only a single position and were four points off the summit under the interim leadership of Hansi Flick.

However, as Rolls Royce defender David Alaba put it, Flick managed to “flip the switch” and turn the ailing outfit back into the lean, mean, winning machine of old, earning the full-time coaching gig in the process. Bayern have been almost unstoppable since mid-December and deservedly clinched their coveted eighth consecutive Meisterschale with room to spare.

Bayern have taken an eye-boggling 54 points from an available 56 (W18-D1-L0) across their last 19 fixtures, racking up 61 (3.21 per-game) in that sequence. With the title presentation organised for after Saturday’s curtain-closer at Wolfsburg, you can bet your bottom dollar the German champions will want to sign-off in style with another W.

So the 4/5 available on Betfair for the Bavarians to beat Wolfsburg has to be taken seriously, especially so when you consider the visitors have only been priced up at a larger price twice on their travels since the start of last season – both at Borussia Dortmund. Yes, Bayern have been shorter odds in two trips to Leipzig than they are for Saturday’s showdown.

FC Hollywood have dispatched Wolfsburg in eight of their last nine encounters and won’t be taking the tussle lightly; Manuel Neuer returns after being given a breather against Freiburg, while left-back Alphonso Davies and Serge Gnabry will be back in the side following injury and suspension. Benjamin Pavard will drop out for Real Madrid loanee Alvaro Odriozola.

So why is the price so big considering Bayern’s average away odds since the beginning of 2018/19 across all encounters is just 4/11? Well, sixth-placed Wolfsburg will qualify directly for the Europa League group stage if they can match Hoffenheim’s result at Dortmund. Put simply, the hosts motivation here is to avoid the Europa League qualifying rounds and so there's something riding on it for VFL.

The Wolves have largely impressed under Oliver Glasner's tutorship; however, the hosts have continuously underperformed at their Volkswagen Arena base (W4-D7-L5). Peculiarly, Wolfsburg have won just one of their last nine Bundesliga home games and were painfully limp in a recent 2-0 home defeat against Dortmund.

The hosts have fired blanks in seven of their nine meetings with the runaway top-five in Germany, generating just 0.42 Expected Goals (xG) from open play on average against Dortmund, Leipzig, Gladbach and Leverkusen here during Glasner’s Bundeslia reign, as well as being beaten ‘to nil’ in all three clashes with Bayern and Dortmund this term.