THE EUROPEAN NAP returns this weekend as Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) heads to La Liga on Sunday evening.
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid | Sunday 17.15 | Sky Sports 4
OK, this isn't a ‘NAP' as such but hopefully you'll forgive me for picking two selections, very similar to each that give us a 13/5 shot when backed at the specified prices.
Yes, I’m supporting Atletico Madrid again and yes, I’m backing them to deliver a low-scoring victory in the Canaries on Sunday evening.
Atleti still top the table by two points and Diego Simeone’s side have now recorded eight victories from their last nine matches, keeping seven clean sheets. Their defence is so strong that only once in their top-flight history have Atletico conceded as few goals (8) after their opening 19 games.
Seven of those aforementioned eight triumphs were recorded by either a 1-0 or 2-0 correct score and now 11 of the capital club’s last 29 away trips (38%) since the start of last season, as well as in 10 of their last 18 trips to bottom-half teams, have followed this theme.
If we took that 38% figure and turned it into equivalent odds, we’d be looking at a 13/8 shot but Coral have chalked up the 1-0 correct score at 6/1 with BetVictor offering 13/2 on the 2-0 away win.
Back both correct scores and we’re sitting on a 13/5 shot – taking just Atletico to win and Under 2.5 Goals is best odds 2/1 (Boylesports), so we’ve already extracted excellent value.
Atletico recorded seven clean sheets in 10 away days this term, winning on each occasion that they’ve shutout their hosts. And just four of their previous 21 La Liga contests have featured three goals or more. See, the case is stacking up…
There’s more, though. Las Palmas have W4-D1-L0 in their last five at their Estadio Gran Canaria home but none of the league’s big-three have visited their fortress. In fact, take out their 4-1 thrashing of relegation-threatened Granada and Quique Setien’s outfit have scored just four in five in front of their home fans since promotion.
Only Espanyol have attempted fewer shots at home as hosts with nine of their 10 on the island falling below the three-goal line. And just to cement the selection, Las Palmas are operating on a depleted squad through injury.
Atletico win but if you want the 13/5 shot, tuck into the ‘double NAP'.
Best Bets
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid – Atletico Madrid to win 1-0 (6/1 Coral)
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid – Atletico Madrid to win 2-0 (13/2 BetVictor)
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