THE European season continues its relentless quest for conclusion on Sunday and Jack Wright (@bet_shop_boys ) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
Aalesund v Bodo/Glimt | Sunday 12th July 2020, 17:00
The top-flight of Norwegian football isn’t used to sharing the domestic football limelight with its more illustrious European cousins from England, Italy and Spain, but of course due to reasons we know too well, all those leagues are in full swing coming to their delayed conclusion in a summer feast of football.
How could the little old Eliteserien possibly get any attention? With game after game of action-packed, goal-filled excitement that’s how!
So, on a day where we have the North London derby, a Napoli v AC Milan powerhouse clash, as well as games for both Valencia and Sevilla, I am excited to take you to Scandinavia with my focus on Bodo/Glimt’s trip to Aalesund.
Since Norway kicked-off its delayed season on 16th June, the Eliteserien has seen just three 0-0 draws from its six rounds of games with two of those coming on the opening day. After 48 fixtures we have seen 162 goals scored at an average of 3.38 per-game, both teams contributing in 29 and Over 2.5 crossed on 31 (65%) occasions.
When you take in to account Serie A, a league we are loving for its goals and excitement, has had 62% in the same Over 2.5 Goals market (albeit from a larger sample size) that’s terrifc.
A side that immediately caught my eye in the opening skirmishes were Bodo/Glimt – featuring in the highest-scoring game on opening day with a 4-2 win at Viking, followed up by a 6-1 mauling of Haugesund.
However, I was officially hooked after Bodi’s visit to Rosenborg which produced 20 attempts on goal, 20 corner kicks, four yellow cards, one red and away goals in the 87th and 90th minutes to seal an away win in a five-goal classic.
Can Kjetil Knutsen’s side keep their 100% record going as they visit the league’s bottom side? Well, with six wins (three at home, three away) secured in style by scoring an astonishing 24 goals, a goal difference of +18, most corners won away (average of 10.33) and overall at 8.67 flag kicks – in short, they’ve been a bettor’s dream!
The question is, although they are well aware of the threat, can the hosts put a stop to the leader’s incredible start? The basement club have managed to score in each of their opening six games picking up three draws in the process, with a 7-2 capitulation at Kristiansund contributing largely to their goal difference of -10.
1990’s English football fans will be familiar with the man tasked with springing a surprise result here, former Nottingham Forest, Blackburn and Derby midfielder Lars Bohinen is the man in charge at the Color Line Stadion. With no disrespect meant to him or his newly-promoted side this is all about the visitors as far as my betting angles are concerned.
The betting angles
A side with four players who have scored three or more and are in the current top 15 scorers in the league clearly have plenty of firepower. This list is led by Kasper Junker, signed from Danish side Horsens after a successful loan in Norway last season with Stabaek, and what a start it has been for the 26-year-old at his new club with eight goals and two hat-tricks from his opening six games.
Bet 365 offer 9/2 the Dane scores the opening goal, 5/1 he bags a brace and 20/1 he takes home the match ball for a third time. I am astonished to see the odds available for Junker given his start and the opposition and a price of 21/20 to score a goal is impossible for me to ignore for a player I priced up at odds-on.
As mentioned in my last piece – Bet 365 also offer the safety blanket of voiding the bet should our selection not start the game – although I can’t see that being the case.
As previously mentioned, stopping this goalscoring Bodo juggernaut is easier said than done and my eyes were drawn to Glimt scoring in both halves, something they have done in all six games so far.
Available at 19/20 with William Hill I was only deterred from picking this by the home sides first half performances this season. On three occasions so far, they have kept a clean sheet going into the interval and in each of those games, against fourth-placed Brann, fifth-placed Stromgodset and sixth-placed Valerenga they have been leading 1-0. Enough to put me off both Bodo /Bodo HT/FT at 20/21 and even the away team to win both halves at 2/1.
Given the hosts’ home games average 4.33 goals and the Superlaget visitors average 5.00 away, I obviously want a play with goals on our side. Over 3.5 has been crossed in every one of these two sides respective home and away games in the league and when added to the expected win for the visitors we get a nice price at odds-against with Betway. I think the 13/8 offers nice value.
Finally, I couldn’t write a piece on Bodo/Glimt without also having a play on corners. Their totals this season read, 6, 5, 13, 6, 12, 10 at an aforementioned average of 8.67 and 10.33 away. A reminder this is team totals I am talking about not match totals!
So, using Bet Victor’s Bet Builder we can combine Over 2.5 Goals with Over 5.5 Bodo/Glimt Corners at odds of 6/5. An amount of goals that has happened in 100% of these two sides fixtures this season and a corner total Glimt have covered on 83% of occasions.
Aalesund v Bodo/Glimt – Kasper Junker to score at Anytime (21/20 Bet 365)
Aalesund v Bodo/Glimt – Bodo/Glimt to win and Over 3.5 Goals (13/8 Betway)
Aalesund v Bodo/Glimt – Over 2.5 Goals and Over 5.5 Bodo/Glimt Corners (6/5 BetVictor)