European Best Bets: Ace Atalanta to excel in Bergamo


THE European season continues its relentless quest for conclusion on Tuesday and Jack Wright (@bet_shop_boys ) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.

Atalanta vs Brescia | Tuesday 14th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports

Serie A overachievers Atalanta continue to impress us as they showcase their entertaining brand of football, picking up positive results and plaudits in equal measure.

A 2-2 draw with Juventus may have harshly halted the Bergamo boys’ 11-game winning streak (all competitions) but it took a brace of Cristiano Ronaldo penalties to do so – the second one of which being not only highly contentious but as the clock ticked on to 90 minutes.

The manner in which Atalanta dominated the game in Turin will not only have sent a message out to their opponents that night that Juventus will need to stay honest to secure another Scudetto but to their remaining opponents both domestically and in European club football’s top competition.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s entertainers have amassed 87 goals so far this season, a whopping 19 more than any other side and are all but sure of securing their participation in the Champions League for 2020/21.

Until very recently you could almost guarantee Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score every time La Dea took to the field, but they have kept things tighter at the back since a 3-2 win over Udinese five games ago.

Three successive wins ‘to nil’ followed with 2-0 home victories over Napoli and Sampdoria sandwiching a 1-0 triumph away to Cagliari before that trip to the champions in waiting, however I believe a visit of the second worst team in Italy’s top-flight could well see a return of that trend.

Brescia heading back to Serie B

Nineteenth-place Brescia not only have the second lowest haul of points (21 from their 32 games) but have scored the second lowest goals (28) and the second worst defensive record, resulting in the worst goal difference overall of -36.

Away from home it’s a virtually identical story for Brescia with the second lowest points total due to the second highest amount of defeats, second lowest goals for coupled with second highest goals against, equalling the worst goal difference on the road of -23.

In away games Brescia have played against the other members of the current top five, the Rondinelle are yet to find the net conceding 11 goals in the process – 2-0 and 3-0 defeats to Juventus and Roma weren’t great but the recent 6-0 drubbing at Inter was the heaviest defeat of the season and a real low point.

A record of one win in their last 17 Serie A matches is not one to be taking to the Gewiss Stadium in a game which could see the home side take more steps to the 100 goals scored landmark and in the process push Diego Lopez’s side a step closer to Serie B. Another Atalanta win to nil, making it the third in succession against Tuesday’s opponent, is up for grabs at 11/10 (Betfair).

A BetBuilder to appeal

In Atalanta’s 100% home record post-restart, only the five-goal thriller with second-placed Lazio featured a win by less than two goals – added to the aforementioned 2-0 wins over Sampdoria and Napoli was the 4-1 dismissal of Sassuolo.

Meanwhile, the Biancazzurri have been defeated 11 times away from their Mario Rigamonti stadium with seven of those defeats coming by two or more goals – and again in all of the aforementioned three games played in the stadiums of the current top five.

The bookies agree that this should be a routine victory for the Nerazzurri in something of a mismatch against last season’s champions of the league below – with a two goal or better margin of victory only a best priced 2/5. So, with a selection I really like but not one I can put forward on its own I cast my eye to the other markets using the Bet Builder option with Bet365.

Sitting just below Roma, the Italian kings of corners, the Orobici have won 124 flag kicks this season in their own stadium at an average of 7.75 and with Brescia being the fourth most generous as far as conceding that particular set=piece on the road, it looks like an angle we can exploit.

In a game they are expected to dominate, the exceptional Alejandro Gomez could have plenty of opportunities to add to his impressive tally of 16 Serie A assists (3/4 to do so with Coral) if he gets his share of delivering from the corner quadrant – with games against Lazio, Udinese and Sampdoria producing 11, 10 & 7 respectively.

Adding Over 5 Atalanta Corners to our Builder seems well within reach against a side expected to sit deep and pack defence especially as the visitors conceded 16 corners at Juventus and 17 at the aforementioned Roma.

The final leg turns to a simple selection on cards. Since the return the visitors have seen their players receive at least two cards in five of their six games and with a referee in charge who has shown 67 yellow and seven red cards from his 13 Serie A games this season, that run should stretch to six from seven.

Signore Manganiello has in fact shown more cards to Brescia players this season than any other team – officiating them on four separate occasions and showing 11 yellows and one red. A combined bet of Over 5 Atalanta Corners, Over 1 Brescia Card and Atalanta -1 handicap is 5/6 (Bet365).

Best Bets

Atalanta v Brescia – Atalanta to Win to Nil (11/10 Betfair)

Atalanta v Brescia – Over 5 Atalanta Corners, Over 1 Brescia Card and Atalanta -1 handicap (5/6 Bet365)

About Author

Having had a passion for football for as long as I can remember – I’m talking Shoot League Ladders here – one of my first “bets” is still my biggest win. After begging my mum to let me fill in her pools coupon so I could show off my knowledge, eight draws later and a cheque for £11,500 was soon in the post. As a Norwich fan it’s important to have a good grasp of what’s going on in the lower leagues and I also like exploring those less popular leagues to have a delve into any stats-based markets that are available. Right now, I’m particularly enjoying player bets. Outside of sport, I love eating and drinking - maybe a little too much - as well as listening to a varied spectrum of music, both from the comfort of my own home and at festivals.

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