THE always-excellent James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) shares his favourite fancies from Thursday's MD5 Europa League card.
Real Betis vs Ferencvaros | Thursday 25th November 2021, 17:45
Victory for Real Betis could move them four points clear of Celtic in third place in Group C if the Scottish side fail to get a result against Bayer Leverkusen and given that the German side are heavy favourites that is a strong possibility.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side have been in fine fettle when playing at the Benito Villamarín Stadium only losing twice there in all competitions this campaign and taking 14 points from the last 21 up for grabs.
Los Verdiblancos are hardly watertight though and this is best illustrated by the fact that they have only kept three clean sheets all season, none of which came in the Europa League. Infact, those clean sheets came in La Liga games against Getafe (19th), Elche (18th) and Alaves (14th) yet those three managed to generate a combined xG of 3.47.
Therefore, even with Ferenvaros propping up the group having taken zero points from a possible 12, I think they will be amongst the goals here- as was the case in the reverse- which is why both teams to score appeals. Personally, I’ll be having 1.5pts on this.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celtic | Thursday 25th November 2021, 17:45
Bayer Leverkusen host Celtic in the other game in Group C and as previously alluded to, the hosts are clear favourites to secure three points with Bet365 pricing them at 1/2 it implies they have a 67% chance of victory.
Die Werkself remain unbeaten in the Europa League and top the group on ten points with a goal difference of +9. I fancy getting them onside so combining them to win and them to score two or more goals using Bet365’s bet builder takes my fancy here at a juicier 8/5 as this is something that has landed in all three of their victories so far in this competition.
It is also worth noting that they brushed aside Celtic in the reverse as Leverkusen followed in the footsteps of Real Betis by beating Celtic and putting four past them.
Rapid Wien vs West Ham | Thursday 25th November 2021, 17:45
Most must have been surprised by how seriously David Moyes took this competition with the strength of the XI’s he has fielded so far given West Ham’s limited resources. However, with Group H almost wrapped up with two games to spare and no casualties it looks like a bit of a masterstroke.
The Hammers head to Vienna on Thursday to face a side that must win if they are going to stand any chance of making the knock-out stages, however, I think we are set for another efficient Hammers performance.
With Angelo Ogbonna the only absentee, Moyes could go full strength, however, he may shuffle his deck with one eye on the trip to the Etihad on Sunday. This will likely see the likes of Mark Noble, Alex Kral and Andriy Yarmolenko come in, nevertheless, the visitors have more than enough quality to get the job done in Austria.
Domestically, they are one of the most entertaining sides in the English top flight as they often feature in goal laden matches. On the continent though, it has been a different story as all bar their most recent game vs Genk has seen them win to nil.
I think backing them to win here and the game to feature four or fewer goals is the way forward at odds against with Bet365.
Another angle I like for this game is Craig Dawson to score anytime at 17/2 with Bet365. I also think it is worth having a punt on him to have 2+ and 3+ shots at 13/10 and 4/1 with Betfair.
Under David Moyes’ tutelage, West Ham’s threat from set piece situations has become frightening. In their penultimate game before the international break they hosted Liverpool where two of their three goals came from set pieces as did 43% of their shots.
Dawson is an absolute monster from set pieces. Over the course of his career he has averaged 0.12 goals per 90, so in the most literal sense, this is a valuable price as that average translates to a price of 8.33. Personally, I would have taken 8/1.
This campaign, he has averaged 1.83 shots and 0.41 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League. In the seven domestic and Europa League games he has started, he has racked up 15 shots, hitting the target four times and the woodwork twice, scoring once.
Brondby vs Lyon | Thursday 25th November 2021, 20:00
Lyon’s price of 23/20 with William Hill to beat Brondby immediately stood out. The visitors cruised to a 3-0 in the reverse fixture and remain unbeaten in Group A, taking maximum points from their four fixtures, scoring 12 goals in the process and shipping just three!
The implied probability of these odds gives them a 46.5% chance of victory but based of what I have seen of both sides this season- granted that is very little of Brondby- I would suggest Lyon have a chance of victory much close to 60% which is why I would have taken any price of ⅘ or longer here.
Leicester vs Legia Warsaw | Thursday 25th November 2021, 20:00
Goals always seem to be the obvious play as long as Leicester are involved and given that BTTS is a chunk over even money for this visit of Legia Warsaw, it would be rude not to back it once more.
The hosts' shortcomings in the defensive department have been well documented this season. Since their Community Shield victory over Manchester City in August, they have kept just two clean sheets in 18 games with Wolves and Millwall being the only sides that have failed to break them down in that period.
In that 18 game stretch, both teams to score has landed in two third of the games with 58 goals being scored in the process!
So as I said, goals seemed the obvious play here and getting 7/5 with Quinnbet for BTTS is too.
Best Bets
Real Betis vs Ferencvaros – BTTS (Unibet at 6/5)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celtic – Bayer Leverkusen Win & Over 2 Goals (Bet365 at 8/5)
Rapid Wien vs West Ham – West Ham Win & Under 5 Goals (Bet365 at 21/20)
Rapid Wien vs West Ham – Craig Dawson 2 Shots (Betfair at 13/10)
Rapid Wien vs West Ham – Craig Dawson 3 Shots (Betfair at 4/1)
Rapid Wien vs West Ham – Craig Dawson Anytime (Bet365 at 17/2)
Brondby vs Lyon – Lyon Win (William Hill at 23/20)
Leicester vs Legia Warsaw – Leicester vs Legia Warsaw BTTS (Quinnbet at 7/5)
