Europa League Final: WLB contributors share their best bets


THE Europa League final takes place on Friday night from Germany. We asked the WLB stable for their views and best bets ahead of the big match between Sevilla and Inter Milan.

Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire)

It’s a fitting final and devilishly difficult to second-guess. Inter deserve favouritism but the market may have overreacted to their semi-final demolition of Shakhtar Donetsk, leaving the Nerazzurri a little shorter than expected; after all, market leaders Man Utd were as big as 8/5 in places when they unfortunately fell foul against the Spaniards.

I’ll be backing Romelu Lukaku to score. The big Belgian has racked up 33 goals across all competitions for Inter this season, has been exceptional in the end of season encounters and has scored in 28 of his 53 appearances for club and country since the beginning of 2019/20. That’s a 53% strike-rate whereas the odds imply just a 40% chance of landing.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 1-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Romelu Lukaku to score at anytime (6/4 Unibet)

Tom Love (@TomLove_18)

There's very little to split between these teams and that has been born out in the data. Both sides are averaging an Expected Goals (xG) supremacy over one per-game which goes to show just how good they have been in this competition and they are deserving finalists.
With stakes so high, and the possibility of a risk-averse nature which is common in finals, the stalemate looks the way to go at a nice price. I wouldn't be surprised if this went all the way to penalties, that's a 5/1 chance.
  • Prediction: Sevilla 1-1 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Draw (5/2 Betfred)

Jack Lambden (@_JackL_)

“The Belgian is 6/45 to score anytime but I'd prefer to get a bit more value in backing him to score first in the match, something he's done on 10 occasions for club and country across 2019/20. He's averaging 3.6 shots per-game in the Europa League and although this will be a tough test, Big Rom will be full of confidence given his recent run.”

You can read Jack's full match analysis here.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 1-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Romelu Lukaku Over 2.5 Shots (1/1 Bet365)

Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble)

Whilst things change in football every year, Sevilla's pedigree in this competition cannot be ignored. I'd argue that they've hard the more difficult route to the final and have overcome some tougher opponents. So I'm siding with the Los Palanganas for this!

Four of the previous five finals have seen three or more goals and given the attacking nature of both these sides, I'd be extremely surprised if it didn't land in this one!

You can read Chris' bookings analysis on the final here.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 3-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals and 2+ Sevilla Cards

Matt Kirby (@m_kirby95)

It’s got the makings of a corking final with two sides that both know where the net is. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was settled on penalties – that’s how closely matched they are!

Julen Lopetegui likes to push his full-backs forward and this was seen in full effect against Man Utd. So, with that in mind, it’s worth looking at both of the Inter wing-backs in the cards markets with Danilo D’Ambrosio (10/3) and Ashley Young (11/2) both in the firing line.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 2-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Danilo D’Ambrosio to be carded (10/3 Bet365)

James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1)

Antonio Conte's side have a team packed full of experience and I think that'll edge this final in their direction. A clear tactic is seemingly to start fast and they possessed by far the best Serie A first half record over the past season, whilst they've been leading at the interval in their last five UEL ties.

Sevilla were made to work very hard to knock out Wolves and Man Utd, and whilst they cannot be discounted, the Italians look like they're on a mission.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 1-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Inter Milan to lead at half-time (19/10 William Hill)

Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB)

When both strikers come in to a final off the back of scoring doubles in a 5-0 rout as Inter’s do, you have to fancy their chances – especially as in contrast, opponents Sevilla could be without top scorer Lucas Ocampos after their talisman was forced off early in their own semi final against Manchester United.
Not only will the Nerazzurri be tough to break down having conceded just once in their last seven competitive fixtures, I also think they will have just too much firepower. So as much as I like and admire Los Rojiblancos, I simply can’t ignore taking Antonio Conte’s side to claim the trophy with a win inside 90 minutes here.
  • Prediction: Sevilla 1-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet: Inter Milan to win (6/5 Paddy Power)

Marcus Ally (@marcus_ally_4)

Expect experienced heads like Diego Godin and Samir Handanovic to bring their best game for their biggest of the season. Ashley Young and Danilo D’Ambrosio at wing back will stop the productivity of Jesus Navas and Sergio Reguilon at full back, which was so effective against Manchester United.

Marcelo Brozovic setting the tone from the base of midfield and Nicolo Barella’s creativity will wear Julen Lopetegui’s men down. Eventually the dynamic duo of Lautaro Martinez and record breaker Romelu Lukaku will be too much for Jules Kounde and the often erratic Diego Carlos to handle.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 0-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet Inter Milan to win and Both Teams to Score ‘No' (17/5 VBet)

Brett Curtis (@Brett_Curtis92)

There's little doubt in my mind that the best two collective sides have progressed to the final here, and it's a tough one to call. Both teams head into this final in brilliant defensive form, with seven clean sheets apiece from their last nine games. With that in mind it's tough to see a goal-fest.

Personally, I think it's largely going to come down to how well Sevilla's attacking full-backs and Inter's front two perform, as these will be the predominant players tasked with making penetrating runs off the ball and decisive final actions on it.

Romeu Lukaku and Lautauro Martinez simply have too much quality not to punish the space Jesus Navas and Sergio Reguilon will likely leave behind them, so I'm siding with Inter. They never looked like losing against Leverkusen or Shakhtar, whereas Sevilla rode their luck at times against Wolves and Manchester United, and I don't expect Lukaku or Martinez to be as charitable with their finishing.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 0-2 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet Inter Milan to win and Under 4 Goals (2/1 Bet365)

Ben Ragg (@Punters_Corner_)

Sevilla have won the Europa League three times in the last six years and are on a hot run of form at the moment. The Spaniards haven’t lost a single match since 9th February, winning eight of their last nine in all competitions, showing a capability of winning ugly, as well as playing some great football.

Inter have the stronger squad on paper but Sevilla’s formidable form and brilliant history in this competition means I’m backing Julen Lopetegui's men to lift the trophy once more.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 2-1 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet Sevilla Most Corners, Sevilla +1 Handicap (43/20 Unibet)

Gerry Taylor (@thefurlongpole)

Inter were undoubtedly the more impressive in their sem-final 5-0 romp, albeit against a disappointing Shakhtar Donetsk. Sevilla had a tougher task, edging past a wasteful Man Utd.

Given Sevilla's pedigree in this competition, they will no doubt be a tough nut to crack. So I expect the final to be initially quite cagey, but I think Inter go off as worthy favourites. The current form of Romelu Lukaku and Lautauro Martinez, and their solidity in defence, just tips the balance for me, in favour of the Italians.

If the game does open up later on, hopefully there is still a bit of wriggleroom to land the recommended bet.

  • Prediction: Sevilla 0-1 Inter Milan
  • Best Bet Inter Milan to win and Under 3.5 Goals (2/1 Paddy Power)

About Author

A bit like Charlie from Charlie's Angles, the ubiquitous WeLoveBetting Editorial Team are the all-seeing eyes of the site, making sure the web monkeys keep the site running.

Leave A Reply