Europa League: Card-heavy contest expected in Russia


THE Europa League continues on Thursday night. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) runs the rule over the best betting options in games not involving British interest.

Ferencvaros v Ludogorets | Thursday 3rd October 2019, 17:55 | BT Sport

This game probably doesn’t jump off the page to the neutral football fan but I think there’s a bet to be had.

Hungarian champions Ferencvaros will have been delighted with a point away at Espanyol on opening week and there’s certainly a chance to qualify in probably the most open group in the competition. Home form could be key for the Budapest-based boys and they should be going for the win here as they welcome Bulgarian title holders Ludogorets.

The bookies can’t split the two in the betting with both teams at 17/10. That market I’m willing to swerve but I do agree that it’s an even-looking game and I’ll take the 13/15 from Sport Nation on Both Teams To Score.

Ludogorets tend to be good friends for BTTS backers in this competition with 4/6 landing last season. Going forward they have the likes of Wanderson, Jody Lukoki and Claudiu Kesuru and the latter smashed in a hat-trick in the 5-1 demolition of CSKA Moscow on matchday one. They’re a threat on the break too and the Eagles are in great form, winning six on the bounce.

I think Ludogorets will score here but the home side will fancy it too as they’re not in bad nick themselves and have home advantage. BTTS landed in both sides first games and I expect that trend to continue here.

Krasnodar v Getafe | Thursday 3rd October 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport

Forget the outright market, forget the goals, forget the corners, it’s all about the cautions in Russia on Thursday night.

If you read my piece a fortnight ago you’ll know just how keen I was on cards in Getafe games, and you won’t be surprised that I’m dipping back into that market as they travel to Krasnodar.

We got on Getafe 20+ booking points at 4/5 and 30+ at 11/4 against Trabzonspor, both of which copped. It seems that SkyBet have learned their lesson and those respective selections for this particular game are priced at 2/5 and 11/10. They’re averaging over 30 Booking Points quite comfortably and I’d probably argue the 11/10 is still a bit of value but I think there’s an alternative way in.

The good news is they’re playing another ill-disciplined side in Krasnodar. The Bulls have picked up 27 yellows and two reds in domestic action in just 11 games which averages out to pretty much 30 Booking Points. They also saw two cards in their Europa League opener against Basel.

At the time of writing, SkyBet are the only site to price up the card markets and have both teams to collect 20+ Booking Points at 10/11 which looks nice. Some firms may price up the card markets nearer the game and it is worth checking Bet365 and William Hill on the day.

However, Sky have the same bet shorter than 10/11 in 16 of the Europa League games and for my money this should be the game where it is the shortest odds.

30+ Booking Points each team is 11/4 which could also be worth a smaller play given they’re both averaging that per game so far this season but I’ll just put up the 20+ each team because it’s a more than backable quote.

Guimaraes v Eintracht Frankfurt | Thursday 3rd October 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport

This looks like one of the most exciting games to watch on the Thursday list in my eyes. Guimaraes home games are always a great atmosphere and they’ve made it a fortress in recent times at least. It’s for that reason that I want to get Os Conquistadores onside.

Their Estadio Afonso Henriques hosted a couple of England games in the Nations League finals so will be familiar to most. Vitoria have excelled here; this season they’re unbeaten (W5-D2-L0) and have conceded just three goals in seven games if you include qualifying for this competition.

Last season Guimaraes won 10/17 fixtures on home soil and they look overpriced at 13/4 (Marathon). That bulbous quote brings in an attractive 9/10 price on the home side to avoid defeat and that gives us the draw too at a more than fair price.

The team from the historic Minho province have some useful players that can hurt this Frankfurt side. Lucas Evangelista, Davidson and Andre Andre have been starting behind Bruno Duarte in a 4-2-3-1 formation of late but if gaffer Ivo Vieria wants to shake things up he can do with Englishman Marcus Edwards, Wolves loanee Leo Bonatini, the experienced Ola John and Joao Teixeira all as able options in the background.

They’ll be desperate to get a result after a loss on matchday onr at Standard Liege and they’ll fancy it against a Frankfurt side who lost key men in the summer. Destructive trio Ante Rebic, Sebastien Haller and Luka Jovic all moved on for big money.

Die Adler have banked the majority of that but they have brought in a few replacements. Andre Silva has come in from AC Milan and the experienced Bas Dost has returned to Germany but his high scoring seasons with Wolfsburg seem a long time ago now.

Eintracht have had an average start to the domestic campaign with a W2-D1-L2 record and they also lost 3-0 a fortnight ago against Arsenal. Defensively they don’t look all that and although they’re decent enough going forward they will find it tough going against this strong Guimaraes defence.

Best Bets

Ferencvaros v Ludogorets – Both Teams To Score (13/15 Sport Nation)

Krasnodar v Getafe – Both teams to receive 20+ Booking Points (10/11 SkyBet)

Guimaraes v Eintracht Frankfurt – Guimaraes double chance (9/10 Marathon)

About Author

I was first interested in the betting industry by doing the odd coupon at 18 - when I’d see a team at odds I didn’t expect it sparked my curiosity as to why that was. I’d go and research everything around that club: form, team news, manager quotes, and try give my own price in an aim to out-do the bookies. I personally enjoy punting on the Football League and European competitions. I like to diversify what markets I bet on so sometimes it’s outrights, goals, player cards etc. The Football League angle comes from being an avid Bradford City fan which has its ups (reaching a League Cup final and beating Chelsea in the FA Cup) and its downs (The entirety of 2018). Hobbies of mine include playing football, cross country running, travelling and playing Football Manager.

Leave A Reply