It’s do or die time for the Netherlands in Kharkiv on Sunday night. With qualification now out of the Oranje’s hands, they must win to give themselves a fighting chance but they must win by two clear goals.
That’s good news for We Love Betting readers who followed our pre-tournament tip that the Netherlands would fail to reach the knockout stages. We also recommended a play on the Germany/Portugal reverse forecast at a big 3/1 and Portugal now just need a point to bag a quarter-final place and pay out on that forecast, too.
The Dutch haven’t been as poor as some pundits have suggested. They’ve created chances in both games but lacked a clinical edge. Arsenal’s Robin van Persie has been a big culprit in front of goal but they look shaky when teams have broken on the counter.
Expect Portugal to sit back and pounce on the break when the chances arise. They’ve yet to sparkle themselves – blowing a two-goal lead against Denmark before scraping a win late on, while only coming alive after conceding against the Germans in their Group B opener.
With the Netherlands chasing victory, and a two-goal victory, it should allow Portugal to notch a goal themselves, meaning the Dutch will need three. Given their frailties at the back, backing both teams to score at 4/6 is worthy of consideration.
Key trends
- Netherlands have only won one of their ten previous meetings with Portugal; and that came back in 1991.
- Portugal have failed to score in four of their last seven matches.
- Robin van Persie has scored four goals in Holland’s last five matches.
