MATCHDAY 30 of Bundesliga continues on Saturday afternoon as Eintracht Frankfurt host Mainz. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) shares his research.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz | Saturday 6th June 2020, 14:30 | BT Sport
Consecutive away wins for Eintracht Frankfurt have seen them pull away from the drop zone. And this looks a brilliant chance to make it three on the bounce against a Mainz side who haven’t won in five.
Adi Hütter made just one change for Wednesday’s trip to Bremen with Almamy Toure coming in at right wing-back. But it was substitute Stefan Ilsanker was the man of the moment. He scored 14 seconds after coming off the bench and added his second eight minutes later to take his Bundesliga goals tally to two.
Mainz are treading water with their heads just above the water. They sit a point above the relegation play-off spot. They are winless in five with just two points collected since the return but have been picked up in away games.
Achim Beierlorzer’s side are in a desperate need of a win, but they are struggling to create that many clear cut chances. Ridle Baku is one man that has caught the eye down their right side, but he’s banned for this trip.
Die Nullfunfer have scored 22 goals in 14 away games, but they’re outperforming their Expected Goals (xG) creating just 18.15xG on their travels. Having racked up a few games under 1xG, then it’s very likely to come back to haunt them.
Kostic to unlock Mainz defence
One of Frankfurt’s key men is Filip Kostic. He’s chipped in with 10 assists so far this season making him just one of eight players to have reached double figures. He added to his tally in Wednesday’s win with a pinpoint cross finding Andre Silva. And that was just one of 16 crosses he attempted against Werder Bremen.
The Serbian is a key cog in this Frankfurt side and he does rack the crosses up. However, looking at Ladbrokes’ Bet Builder feature, the bar is already set at 14+ crosses (17/20), which isn’t something I’d consider although he will be on corner duty.
Given his role in the team, it could be worth looking at the Mainz right-back for tackles and a card. But with Baku suspended, that’s still a bit of an unknown. The Bundesliga site names Daniel Brosinski as the most likely to come into the side, but there’s a chance Ronael Pierre-Gabriel will get the nod.
From a betting perspective, the latter would be a better option too. He’s made five appearances in 2020 and completed 15 tackles across those 337 minutes, so if he does start then he’s one for the tackles market.
Silva to continue to shine
The AC Milan loanee is flying with four goals in five games taking him to eight in the Bundesliga. He can be quiet in games but always seems to pop up in space and elude the opposition defence.
He’s averaging 2.1 shots per game, and given this Mainz defence have only kept one away clean sheet, then he’s likely to keep this hot streak going. The in-form forward is worth a look in the goalscorer markets. You can get 6/4 on him to score anytime and 6/1 (William Hill) for him to open the scoring, which he’s done in the last two games.
With Frankfurt’s upturn in form and Mainz barren spell combining the two will appeal to some, so Silva to score in a home win at 5/1 with Bet365.
The betting angles
I’m keen to side with an Andre Silva goal and two other angles appeal. I’ll start with the 5/6 shot and it’s for a goal to be scored from the 76th minute to full-time on Bet365. Frankfurt games this season average 3.52 goals per game with 66% of goals coming in the second half, and for home games, it’s 62% of goals scored come after the break.
Just looking at the hosts date then you’ll see the longer the game goes, the more chance of a goal. Goal times by every 15 minutes is consistent at around 13% until you hit the hour mark. From 61 to 75 minutes it rises to 19% then it increases to 30% for the final 15 minutes.
We saw that highlighted by their strong finish against Bremen. And at home, Frankfurt have scored 13 goals in that final-15 minute spell. For Mainz, 17 goals in their 14 away league games have come late in the game – again it’s 30%.
With this being the third game in seven days for Frankfurt then there may be a few tired legs in Hutter’s side, so late fatigue could be a factor to add into this line of thinking.
The final bet I’ve lined up is a juicy 7/1 bet and comes from something I’ve noticed when watching Frankfurt of late.
It’s Daichi Kamada to be carded, which I feel many will overlook given his disciplinary record is pretty exemplary. He’s only received 11 cautions in 164 first-team appearances for his clubs, but Wednesday’s game highlighted a certain cynical side to his game, which I’m surprised Patrick Ittrich didn’t punish with a yellow card.
It’s six yellows across the Bundesliga and Europa League, so six in 2262 minutes of football. So he averages a card every 377 minutes, but with an increased foul count since the return of the league, then I’m sure a few German officials will be making a mental note of this more aggressive play.
He’s committed eight fouls across the five games, although only playing 19 minutes against Bayern. He was booked in the away win at Wolfsburg last weekend and is one to look at given his recent foul count. And at 7/1 with Sky Bet, it’s a good price for me to get involved in.