FOOTBALL LEAGUE fan James Potter (@thebettingdesk) oversees the Tuesday EFL schedule, picking out his three best bets.
QPR vs Blackburn | Tuesday 19th October 2021, 19:45
QPR and Blackburn should play out a game at Loftus Road that will be goal heavy. Both sides love to get forward and struggle to defend. Rangers have scored an average of 1.83 goals per home match so far this term, scoring 1.5+ in four of their six games, whilst conceding in four.
At home they have seen an average of 3.00 match goals per game whilst six of the last seven games in the championship have gone over 2.5 goals. The Hoops have now scored in all 12 matches and conceded in nine. Across the 12 games they have conceded 1.5+ in eight games and both teams to score landing has landed in nine. There is no doubt about it, but they are fun to watch.
They sit 2nd for most shots taken at home and no side has had more shots on target. Mark Warbuton has them playing open attack minded football. I like they are brave trying to play out from the back, but they are often naïve and get caught, but going forward they attack with pace which always causes issues for opposing sides at all levels.
Charlie Austin, Lydon Dykes and Andre Gray give them options up top whilst Stefan Johansen gives them ability on the ball in the middle of the park. I can’t see how Rangers don’t score at least once on Tuesday night and this leads me to be happy to back over 2.5 match goals.
Blackburn have seen plenty of goals recently with 18 goals in their last four games. On the road they have scored in five of six and conceded in the same number with the 0-0 draw with Barnsley the second time they have kept a clean sheet this season.
Star man Ben Brereton, who has scored 10 goals this season will start. He managed to make the bench in their 2-2 draw with Coventry at the weekend despite returning to the UK only a matter of hours before the game following his international commitments with Chile. He is the talisman and there is no argument that Blackburn will be a better side with him in it.
Despite Rovers finding the net regularly this season their underlying metrics have been poor and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rangers fire in a couple of goals here, but the visitors have a habit of scoring and I think the price we are getting of 3/4 is decent value given the performances and results of both sides.
Bradford vs Hartlepool | Tuesday 19th October 2021, 19:45
Bradford aren’t getting the results that their underlying metrics suggest. I have them as the best home side based on ratios and some of their performance data is very impressive. At home they are averaging 2.23 xG with 2.0 goals scored. It may be no surprise to see that the shots data is very strong sitting 1st for shots, 4th for shots on taken, 1st for touches in the box and 1st for shots in the box.
At home they have gone W3-D3-L0 and at times have struggled to turn the draws into wins especially given the strength of some of the opposition they have played at home, but I feel they are improving, and they face at Hartlepool side who have struggled on the road this season.
The hosts are still undefeated at home this season and are looking to extend that run to seven matches against newly promoted Hartlepool. The Bantams are starting to see players come back from injury which will help boost the squad.
I am not convinced by the hosts defensively and I wouldn’t be surprised if they cause some issues. Although its worth noting that the visitors have a number of injury concerns and may be without leading scorers, Luke Molyneux and Tyler Burey.
On the road this season they have struggled with W0-D1-L5 scoring just twice with both goals coming in the away defeat to Barrow in their opening away game of the season, which means they have failed to find the net in four consecutive away days. At the back they have conceded in all but one away game and I don’t see them improving here.
Pools have only managed to generate a xG greater than 1.0 on one occasion this season when they lost 2-0 to Stevenage and managed 1.08 xG. I have the visitors in the bottom three based on their away performances so far this term. None of their underlying metrics are that disastrous, they just all sit within in the bottom third.
Bradford boss Derek Adams knows that his side must start picking up more wins and will see three points against a side that has one of the worst away records in the country as a must.
Hartlepool will be in a relegation fight come the end of the season and Bradford should have too much for them here.
Lincoln vs Wimbledon | Tuesday 19th October 2021, 19:45
Another game that I fancy goals in and we can back over 2.5 match goals at odds against which looks generous to me. Just a look at the basic results would suggest that this game might have goals. Lincoln have seen 2.33 goals at home and the Wombles 3.5 goals away. It’s the away side that makes this bet more appealing.
Wimbledon on the road have gone over 2.5 goals in five of their six encounters this term, scoring in four and conceding in all six. With a xGA of 1.27, the 15th highest in the league and conceding 2.0 goals per game, which is only bettered by six other sides, we should see Lincoln find their way onto the scoresheet here.
Defensively their metrics are good, but side in the league has a higher xGA per shot conceded. This means that the chances they do give up are very good opportunities and that has been their downfall all season with no clean sheets from their 12 games.
The Wombles will go to Lincoln and play their usual game. Assistant coach Rob Cornell said this week ““we want to go there and try to impose our style and take the game to them, like we have done in our previous games. We’ve worked on ways that we can hurt them. Hopefully, we can go there and put our stamp on the game and really put them on the back foot.”
There will definitely look to set pieces for their advantage and with worked dead ball deliveries and a number of imposing players they will test the Imps defensive. For the visitors Ollie Palmer is still out injured and they will also be missing George Marsh and Will Nightingale, which means that Ben Heneghan and Paul Kalambayi will play at the back and Jack Rudoni will start up top after his goal on Saturday.
The Imps have all full squad to select from, although key midfielder Liam Bridcutt is again out injured. He is vital for the Imps and will be missed in the midfield.
However, they have options in Conor McGradles to cover Bridcutt and with Chris Maguire back from injury they have a good line up with Teddy Bishop and Anthony Scully operating wide. They need these players to step up as they have found creating and scoring chances tough this season with a home xG of just 0.92 with average match goals of 1.00.
The Imps have scored in four of their six home games, drawing blanks against Ipswich and Bolton, although against the Trotters they should have scored with a xG of 1.6. As yet they haven’t kept a clean sheet at all this season and the majority of their underlying defensive metrics suggests that’s not likely to change when Wimbledon visit.
With both sides struggling to keep clean sheets with zero from 24 games between them, I fancy both sides to get on the scoresheet tonight. They will both be looking at the opposition thinking this is a great opportunity to finally score a few goals
Between them both teams have scored in eight of 12 games and over 2.5 goals have also landed in eight of 12. That’s 66.66% which equates to 1.5 yet we can back this at 2.11 (11/10) with Marathon bet and with Betvictor.
Best Bets
QPR vs Blackburn – Over 2.5 Goals (3/4 Marathon)
Bradford vs Hartlepool – Bradford to score Over 1.5 Goals (1/1 Bet365)
Lincoln vs Wimbledon – Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 BetVictor)
