ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Arsenal take on Dundalk in the Europa League on Thursday night.
Dundalk vs Arsenal| Thursday 10th December 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Arsenal head into their last group stage match against Dundalk with the weight off their shoulders after already qualifying for the knockout stages. They travel to Ireland off the back of another loss in the Premier League though, as they were beaten 2-0 by arch-rivals Tottenham.
The home side are a whopping 22/1 to win this tie and you very rarely see such a price on a team in Europe, but that being said, Arsenal have been excellent in this competition.
Mikel Arteta desperately needs to see the confidence in his sides play in Europe transmit to the domestic scene. Interestingly, Arsenal have more points in this group (15) than in the Premier League (13).
The Gunners’ 4-1 victory over Rapid Wien last Thursday saw them reach 16 goals in the Europa League this season, only behind Bayer Leverkusen in that department. They’ve won five out of five thus far whilst only conceding three goals. Their defence has looked very solid in this competition and it would be a surprise to see their defence breached here.
However, despite losing all five, Dundalk have scored in every game apart from the encounter at The Emirates.
This is somewhat of a dead rubber game though. With every Arsenal game seeing Over 2.5 Goals land, then goals look likely from the visitors.
Here, we have the lowest fouls-per-game team (Dundalk), up against the least fouled team in Arsenal. In the reverse fixture, Arsenal didn’t even take a free kick which is just bonkers. Arsenal have averaged 9.2 free-kicks per game, whereas Dundalk have only conceded an average of 7-per-game.
We could see a slow-paced game with a tempo similar to that of a friendly.
The 3-0 correct score did take my eye at 6/1 with BetVictor as it has landed in two of Arsenal’s five games so far, including in the reverse fixture at The Emirates. They have also seen the 4-1 score line in two of these five wins.
Therefore, Arsenal have won four of their five games in this group by three goals, with the 4-1 score line copping twice. They are 7/2 to win by exactly three goals which may take your fancy.
A repeat wouldn’t be a surprise here, so I’ll take on a bigger price and smaller stakes here given that there isn’t much value to be had in a game like this.
Dundalk will be looking forward to hosting Arsenal and will just enjoy the occasion. For Arsenal, a positive and free-flowing performance is definitely needed, given their set up playing right into the hands of Spurs at the weekend.
Arsenal to win 3-0 looks the most likely result given I don’t expect Dundalk to bother the Arsenal backline.
Best Bets
Dundalk vs Arsenal – Arsenal to win 3-0 (6/1 BetVictor)
