Derby v Charlton: Tight Monday night tussle forecast


CHAMPIONSHIP specialist James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) shares his thoughts on Monday night's match-up between Derby and Charlton.

Derby v Charlton | Monday 30th December 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports

Derby County and Charlton Athletic look to end their 2019 in positive fashion when they take on the Pride Park field on Monday night. Both enjoyed late in the game drama last time out, Derby earned a draw at Wigan, whilst the Addicks came from behind to defeat Bristol City 3-2 at The Valley.

Both Phillip Cocu and Lee Bowyer would have hoped this to be a top-half encounter at this stage of the season, especially with aspirations high for the Rams in pre-season, whilst Charlton began the campaign is blistering fashion. However, this is a bottom-half battle at the halfway stage of the Championship season, although both are hoping their latest scorers could spur them on to greater improvement.

Derby’s goalscoring woes

Without a doubt, Derby have a bit of a problem at the moment in finding the back of the net. Going into this round of games, only Wigan have netted fewer times in Championship action this season. That is a great disappointment considering the offensive talent they’ve got available, and certainly not the intention Cocu would have wanted to implement.

End product at the end of the day is the name of the game, and Derby won’t have wanted to rely on having veteran player-coach Wayne Rooney, who’ll be available to play in January, to spearhead their attack. Cocu’s side are averaging 11.40 shots per game in league action, whilst is one of the lowest figures in the division. They’ve failed to score at least two goals in any of their past nine games.

Clinical Charlton

Whilst many Derby fans will feel as though their team aren’t creating enough, Charlton fans probably should feel the same. Whilst they’re scoring goals, the numbers suggest that is coming from few opportunities. They average only 9.20 shots per game, which is by far the lowest in the entire division.

It therefore is impressive that they’re managing to score as regularly as they have been doing. They’ve scored at least twice for three games running, seven in total. It has taken Derby the last 13 games to score a total of six goals, so that highlights the difference at the moment. Also, Bowyer’s men have scored over 1.5 goals on six occasions away from home.

The betting angle

For all that Derby aren’t scoring many, they’re not necessarily conceding a bucket load either. In their last seven at home, they’ve shipped only three goals and earned four clean sheets in that period. Charlton have conceded exactly two goals a whopping eight times away from home this season, but they do face a shot-shy Derby team.

Unpredictable things happen at this time of year so I’ll swerve any outright market focusing on both teams. The goal angle is the best way to go in my opinion. 75% of Derby’s games has seen at least one first-half goal, whilst that number jumps to 79.16% for Charlton. A Goal In Both Halves at ¾ (BoyleSports) looks like a play.

Finally, we touched upon that Derby aren’t conceding that many, and it is important they don’t given they score so few. Derby have conceded over one goal only twice at home this season, so Charlton may struggle to break them down, but they should break them down eventually. Charlton To Score One Goal Exact is priced 6/4 (Bet365).

Best Bets

Derby v Charlton – A Goal In Both Halves (3/4 BoyleSports)

Derby v Charlton – Charlton To Score One Goal Exact (6/4 Bet365)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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