CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Saturday afternoon's showdown between Leeds and Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace vs Leeds | Saturday 7th November 2020, 15:00 | BT Sport Box Office
Crystal Palace welcomes Marcelo Bielsa and his Leeds side to Selhurst Park with both sides looking to return to winning ways after being on the losing side last time out.
Roy Hodgson’s side fell to a 2-0 defeat in their away trip Wolves despite dominating the ball for large periods of the game. Daniel Podence and Rayan Aït-Nouri’s first-half goals were enough to clinch the points and leave Crystal Palace in the bottom half of the table.
The Eagles are yet to score more than a single goal on home turf so far this season, and with key defenders missing, you can’t help but feel that will have to change if they’re to claim victory over Saturday's visitors.
Leeds have had an exceptional start to the season and have captivated the neutral fan with their tenacious style of play that epitomises the philosophy of Bielsa. They’ve played THREE games away so far, winning two of them – their single loss came by a narrow defeat to Champions Liverpool on the opening weekend.
The Yorkshire side has fared much better on their travels than they have at Elland Road so far. On home soil, Bielsa’s men have lost their last two, including a heavy 1-4 defeat at the hands of Leicester City on Monday night.
Key facts
Crystal Palace:
- Commit on average 14.3 fouls per game when playing at home this season (2nd highest).
- Receive on average 12.3 fouls per game when playing at home this season.
- Have seen 2+ cards in FOUR of their last FIVE home games.
- In those games the opposition have seen 2+ cards on 3/5 occasions.
- Have seen under 2.5 goals scored in 10 of their last 12 home games.
- Have lost TWO of their last THREE EPL meetings with promoted sides.
- Have had the fewest number of shots in the EPL so far this season
Team news:
- Luka Milivojevic was sent off against Wolves a week ago and Crystal Palace failed with their appeal. He misses out here.
- Jordan Ayew is back after a spell out with COVID-19, as is new goalkeeper Jack Butland.
- Defensive trio Joel Ward, Tyrick Mitchell and James Tomkins are ruled out for the Eagles.
- With Milivojevic unavailable and James McCarthy a doubt, James McArthur will hope for a recall after a stint out of the side.
Leeds:
- Commit on average just 9 fouls per game when playing away this season.
- Receive on average 12.7 fouls per game when playing away this season.
- Have seen 2+ cards in just TWO out of their last FIVE away games.
- In those games, the opposition have seen 2+ cards on 3/5 occasions.
- Only Liverpool have had more shots than Leeds United so far this season.
- Patrick Bamford has scored FIVE goals in his THREE away EPL games so far this season.
- Have won just ONE of their last TWENTY away trips to London, beating QPR 3-1 in December 2017.
Team news:
- Leeds will be without Rodrigo until after the international break after he tested positive for COVID-19 at the end of last month.
- Diego Llorente and Kalvin Phillips remain sidelined this weekend, but Raphinha could be involved in the matchday squad at Selhurst Park.
- Leeds' defence looked ropey against Leicester and Marcelo Bielsa may ponder changes there, though injuries limit his hand.
- Mateusz Klich is not a like-for-like replacement for Phillips but filled in at the base of Leeds' midfield against Leicester. Pascal Struijk may take up that position here.
Referee: Chris Kavanagh
- In the last 20 games he has officiated, he has shown the home side a card in all of them and 2+ cards in 14.
- In the last 20 games he has officiated, he has shown both sides a card in 15 of them.
Analysis
My first bet is for Crystal Palace to see at least TWO cards in the game and for there to be under FIVE match goals. Palace have seen at least two cards in FOUR of their last FIVE home league games and are coming up against a side who press high, attack and will drive at the heart of the Eagles defence.
Referee Chris Kavanagh has shown the home side at least ONE card in all of the last 20 games that he’s taken charge of. He’s handed the home side 2+ in 14 of those – 70%.
My second bet is an odds boost on Betfair. This exact bet has landed in 2/3 of Crystal Palace’s home games so far this season as well as in 2/3 of Leeds United’s away games.
Palace have conceded in SEVEN of their last 10 home games and Leeds have scored in all of their away games so far, arguably against tougher opposition.
Roy Hodgson’s side are without some key defenders, and as such, I think Leeds will look to pin them back, utilise their width and get balls into the box for the in-form Bamford to get on the end of, resulting in quite a few corners.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace vs Leeds – Crystal Palace Over 1.5 Cards and Under 5 Match Goals (4/5 Bet365)
Crystal Palace vs Leeds – Leeds to Score, Leeds 5+ Corners and Crystal Palace 2+ Cards ((9/4 Betfair)
