Crystal Palace vs Burnley | Saturday 13th February 2021, 15:00 | Sky Sports
Wilfried Zaha-less Crystal Palace play host to Sean Dyche’s Burnley this Saturday in looking to recover from their comprehensive 2-0 loss at Leeds last time out. As a result of Brighton's resurgence, the Clarets have fallen to 17th place, however an eight-point cushion over Fulham gives them crumbs of security when peering over their shoulders.
Burnley earned their first win of the 2020/21 season by a 1-0 scoreline in the reverse fixture, a repeat performance will be what they search for coming up against one of the worse teams in the division. There is value in the visitors, I am surprised to see Palace so close to evens given the absence of their star man.
Roy Hodgson’s dogged Eagles have an interesting relationship with expected goals (xG) that typically sees them overperform by a couple of places each season. Whether that is good fortune or by design it remains to be seen but the wiley man’s experience has certainly worked wonders for the South London club in their eighth consecutive season in the topflight.
They have overachieved but not alarmingly so to score 27 goals from 23.7 expected, ranking 17th for attacking process. When you have the individual talents of Eberechi Eze and Zaha in your ranks, it is not a surprise to see low expectancy shots find the net more regularly than for other sides.
The backline is their main concern shipping 39 goals from 40 xG, and sitting 19th and 18th in the table for those metrics. Zaha is expected to be out for over a month, and therefore we should expect a regression.
Burnley are poor going forward. They lack pace, skill and creativity with an over reliance on the physical and aerial prowess of Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes, they are the division’s lowest scoring team with just 14 goals from an xG of 20, I would expect to see that difference shorten a bit come the end of the season, a goalscoring spell could be around the corner.
Nick Pope, James Tarkowski and Ben Mee is a glovesman and centre back partnership worthy of competing for European football, but they are under so much strain propping up the Clarets in the Premier League. They have conceded 29 from 33.1 xG, it will be interesting to see if Pope can continue his good form and stake a claim for England no. 1 shirt for the Euros this summer.
There is value in an unders punt of under 2.25 or under 2 using the Asian Goal Line however with the variance of football I am not getting involved with that play.
- Palace have scored in five of 10.
- Palace have conceded in seven of 10.
- Palace have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Palace have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
- Burnley have scored in five of 10.
- Burnley have conceded in eight of 10.
- Burnley have seen both teams score in three of 10.
- Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in two of 10.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley – Burnley Draw No Bet (13/10 RedZone)