CRYSTAL PALACE welcome Burnley on Monday night. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his thoughts on the Premier League encounter.
Crystal Palace vs Burnley | Monday 29th June 2020, 20:00 | Amazon Prime
Monday night sees a pretty drab-looking affair between two overachieving teams in Crystal Palace and Burnley. There’s many similarities between these two; both have spent relatively little in the transfer market in the past few years, both are built on strong and organised defences, and both have the ability to get results in tight games.
Massive kudos has to go to the respective managers in Roy Hodgson and Sean Dyche. It hasn’t been a sparkling Premier League season outside of the top six or seven, but both have yet again managed to get their sides well clear of relegation danger and secure yet more Premier League money to boost the coffers and help build further stability. It’s by no means pretty to watch a lot of the time but it’s mighty effective.
The duo rank in the bottom five for possession and shots but they make the most of their chances and are relatively stringent at the back. With that in mind, this could be a game of cat and mouse, with both sides eager to hold their shape and allow as many efforts as possible.
My eyes are drawn to the Total Shots market and I’m surprised we can get 5/6 on Under 22.5 Shots with Unibet. Palace only average 9.60 shots per-game whereas Burnley average just 8.10 per-game when on the road.
Throw in the fact there are doubts about the Burnley strike force in Ashley Barnes, Chris Wood and Jay Rodriguez all not 100% fit. Wilf Zaha is touch and go for Palace too. Some key men for both sides may not make it. It could be a game where defences are on top as the goal line has seen a lot of money come for the Unders recently.
Another market I was interested in comes in the player props market on Bet365. They’ve priced up James Tarkowski to have Over 36.5 Passes at 5/6 and I think that line is too low, so I’m happy to back the Over. There’s always an interest from me when two low possession teams meet at it does bring about value in the passing markets.
Bookies tend to price their lines off averages and that’s the case here. The big Burnley centre half averages 35.7 per-game but he’s up against a Palace side that average 45.9% possession, so I’d make his line about 45 here. This bet landed in the reverse game where he had 49 and has also landed in games against Spurs (twice), Watford, Villa, Newcastle and Sheffield United All of whom rank low for keeping the ball.
My final angle in here is slightly team news dependant but Bet365 also go even-money on Burnley to have Over 1.5 Offsides and that looks generous. Interestingly, the Clarets rank as the top team by some distance for offsides per-game (2.4). They try go back to front quite quickly and Dyche naturally opts for two strikers both pinned on the centre halves. He also likes balls down the channels for his strikers to run onto.
Chris Wood gets caught offside more than any other player in the league and if he does start this is a certain play in my eyes. Burnley have seen this bet land in seven of their last nine games and although Palace naturally employ a deep block, they may be more willing to get up the pitch as hosts as Burnley also like to sit deep.