OUR Correct Score man Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) delivers his best bets of the weekend.
Arsenal v Tottenham | Saturday November 18 2017, 12:30 | Sky Sports
The obvious bet this week was Burnley to beat Swansea 1-0 but at prohibitive odds of 11/2 and I could not bring myself to back a side whose performance data continues to be so inferior to their results.
Instead, my attention was drawn towards the North London Derby, with Arsenal hosting Spurs. The Gooners are a best price of 6/4 in the outright market and these odds are a clear reflection of the power shift in this fixture.
They may be slight favourites with the bookies but that is merely due to home advantage and is surely the biggest price at home to their biggest rivals during the Premier League era.
At the current odds provided I do think they offer a shade of value but ultimately I believe that a draw is the best bet as it is hard to see either side being at their fluent best in a lunchtime kick off after an international break.
The correct score of 1-1 has been the scoreline at The Emirates in the last three seasons so I am surprised that William Hill are offering 7/1 on a repeat.
Clearly all those matches have seen under 2.5 goals scored so I also feel that the 7/5 Bet Victor are offering on said market represents excellent value.
Given that I believe that the game will finish a draw it therefore also follows that the 14/1 Hills are offering on the game finishing goalless (back no goalscorer) is too big a price.
I'm backing Arsenal and Tottenham to draw 0-0 or 1-1.
Crystal Palace to beat Everton 2-1
Crystal Palace v Everton | Saturday November 18 2017, 15:00 |
Anyone who follows me on Twitter will know that aside from the incessant #PulisOut tweets, I am the avid fan of Roy Hodgson and believe he will keep Crystal Palace in the Premier League.
Given that Palace have only won one league game all season it is hard to justify this scoreline statistically but I do like Palace in the outright market and believe that this is the most likely result.
The league table looks awful for fans of the South London side but eyesight and data suggest that they have been incredibly unlucky. To date, they have only scored four goals this term but this is certainly not a fair reflection of their play.
Their goals:shots ratio is just 2.9% – league average is 10.5% – whilst taking it a step further and merely looking at shots on target also supports the view they have been unlucky so far.
Their shots on target:goals ratio is 11.8% compared with a league average of 32.4% and no dataset in the world suggests that these numbers can continue for a whole league season.
Everton troubles are well-known but I was hoping that their unlikely comeback against Watford would mean that The Eagles would reach 6/4 in the outright market but at the time of writing 7/5 is the best price available.
Come kick off I may well be involved in that but for now I am happy to simply take the 19/2 Marathon Bet are offering on a 2-1 victory for the home side.
I have written previously about how this was a common scoreline for Hodgson during his spells as Fulham and West Bromwich Albion and given that it is hard to see Palace keeping a clean sheet this seems the best way to go this weekend.
Arsenal vs Tottenham – No Goalscorer (14/1 William Hill)
Arsenal 1-1 Tottenham – (7/1 William Hill)
Crystal Palace 2-1 Everton (19/2 Marathon Bet)