OUR Correct Score man Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) delivers his best bets of the weekend.
Manchester City v Chelsea | Saturday 12:30 | Sky Sports 1
Some weekends you can spend hours trawling the markets to find some value, whilst on other occasions there are too many options to fit into one column!
The betting starts early this weekend, with third entertaining first on Saturday lunchtime in what is an intriguing match between the joint favourites for the title this season. These are two evenly matched sides and I don’t think either side will be too disappointed with a share of the spoils.
City’s last three home games in this competition have all ended 1-1 and given that Hills are offering 13/2 (I thought 11/2 would have been best price), it pays to sit on the fence here.
Crystal Palace v Southampton | Saturday 15:00
Every model I look at tells me that these two sides should be on more points than they currently possess but the fact that they have goalkeepers that have been trying to play without the use of their hands has hampered both in recent weeks.
I want to find a way of backing Palace and Southampton in the coming weeks but given that they are playing each other this weekend that is rather difficult!
Palace have lost six on the bounce but only league leaders Liverpool can claim to have outplayed them during that run. Given that they conceded from four set pieces last weekend, doubtless means Alan Pardew’s men will be determined not to do so again on Saturday afternoon.
I think this will be a tight affair but in Benteke and Charlie Austin, both sides possess outstanding goal scorers. the Eagles have drawn 1-1 on two occasions this season and the Saints have managed this three times. Take the 13/2 Betfair are offering for this to occur once more.
West Ham v Arsenal | Saturday 17:30 | BT Sport 1
Another week, another Arsenal bet. Whilst I couldn’t be backing the Gunners outright at a best price of 8/11, I think these scores offer excellent value. 2-1 is 17/2 with Betfair and 3-1 is 13/1 with Bet Victor.
In the last 63 away games Arsene Wenger’s men have played in the Premier League, they have scored exactly two goals on 21 occasions (a league high) and exactly three a further 13 times (also a league high).
That suggests that there is a 54% chance of them doing one or the other this weekend and given that I would rarely trust them to keep a clean sheet away from the Emirates, I am confident of this bet returning a tidy profit.
It has obliged on four of the last six occasions that the Hammers have been at home in this tie and I think it’ll be five in seven come Sunday evening. Slaven Bilic’s men are in for a long, hard season and I don’t see this London derby offering any respite.
Bournemouth v Liverpool | Sunday 13:30 | Sky Sports 1
I originally wanted to simply back Liverpool but the absence of Coutinho leads me to be a little more conservative. Since Jurgen Klopp arrived in this country in October 2015 his side have kept just four clean sheets away from home making both teams to score an attractive proposition.
However, I have rarely been an odds-on man so would far rather be a bit more precise and find some worth. 1-1 is currently 8/1 with Betfair and a 2-1 victory for the away side is 17/2.
This bet has been rewarded six times from 22 attempts since the German took charge, suggesting you are getting excellent value from such indecision!
Manchester City v Chelsea – 1-1 Draw (13/2 William Hill)
Crystal Palace v Southampton – 1-1 Draw (13/2 Betfair)
West Ham v Arsenal – Arsenal to win 2-1 (17/2 Betfair)
West Ham v Arsenal – Arsenal to win 3-1 (13/1 BetVictor)
Bournemouth v Liverpool – 1-1 Draw (8/1 Betfair)
Bournemouth v Liverpool – Liverpool to win 2-1 (17/2 Betfair)
Manchester City v Chelsea, Crystal Palace v Southampton, Sunderland v Leicester and West Brom v Watford – 1-1 Lucky 15 (a 10p lucky 15 returns a maximum of £435 for those of you who can get on)