CORRECT Score king Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) picks out the scorelines he'll be backing this weekend.
Chelsea v Arsenal | Saturday 12:30 | Sky Sports 1
As a football fan, I would love Arsenal to win this game. As a punter, I simply cannot see it. Yes, they beat Chelsea comfortably earlier in the season, but the fortunes of the two sides since could not be more contrasting.
The Gunners are now nine points behind their hosts, who have won their last eight home games, conceding just three goals in the process. Additionally, Arsenal’s record at Stamford Bridge does not make for pretty reading. They have lost six of their last seven there and they failed to find the net in four of those.
I am conscious that Arsene Wenger’s side have scored in their last ten away league games, but this is factored in to the price. Their record against the top six is worse than any of their contemporaries and whilst they did score at both Old Trafford and The City of Manchester stadium they were distinctly second best in both games.
This fixture has ended 2-0 in the last two seasons and at 21/2 with BetVictor, I think three in a row is a great bet. Conte’s fondness of a 1-0 victory leads me to also put a saver on 1-0 to the home side, however. That is available at 15/2 with Paddy Power.
Everton v Bournemouth | Saturday 15:00
I priced every Premier League fixture this weekend and this is the one with the greatest variance to the exchange price. I thought Everton would be about 4/7 but you can get 8/11 at the time of writing.
I understand that Bournemouth may have performed better than their results have suggested but how do you model the fact that Callum Wilson’s absence will mean that the away side have Benik Afobe wandering about up front?
Whilst The Toffees have lost just once at home all season – against nearest rivals Liverpool – the Cherries have won just twice on their travels this term.
I am confident that Everton will win the fixture and given Bournemouth’s problems up front, I am willing to back the home side to keep their third home clean sheet in a row. At 17/2 with BetStars, I believe 2-0 to be a more than fair price.
Southampton v West Ham | Saturday 15:00
Incredibly, despite having 39 more shots on target (108 vs 69) than their opponents so far this season, Southampton have a goal difference of minus five.
Given that they have managed just 23 goals from the same number of fixtures, it is clear where the Saints problems lie. Without Charlie Austin they still create plenty of chances but struggle to convert them.
It is therefore no surprise that their most common victory this season has been by a single goal to nil. With the same applying to their opponents, I do not expect a goal glut on the south coast on Saturday afternoon.
Three of the hosts 11 home games have ended with 1-0 victories. Back a fourth at 7/1 with Betfair.
Lucky 15 | Saturday
I do not usually advocate accumulators but I also find it a struggle to see Middlesbrough scoring at White Hart Lane, so add Tottenham to the three above and back all four to win to nil.
Chelsea v Arsenal – Chelsea to win 1-0 (15/2 Paddy Power)
Chelsea v Arsenal – Chelsea to win 2-0 (21/2 BetVictor)
Everton v Bournemouth – Everton to win 2-0 (17/2 BetStars)
Southampton v West Ham – Southampton to win 1-0 (7/1 Betfair)
Saturday Lucky 15 – Chelsea, Everton, Southampton and Tottenham all to win to nil.