OUR corners man Russ Butterworth (@cornerkicktips) picked a lovely winner last week and has found some League 1 value on Saturday.
Gillingham v Shrewsbury | Saturday 15:00
“It could be a big point and its kept us in the top six. It’s a massive goal, it gives us the confidence and belief we can stay there.”
These were the words of Justin Edinburgh after his Gillingham team fought back from a goal down to secure a point at Rochdale in midweek and illustrates quite how much expectations have changed at Priestfield over the past couple of months.
The Gills spent much of the first half of the season in the automatic promotion places and even in mid-February were sat in third place. However, a run of just two wins in their last 12 games has left them desperately scrambling for a play-off spot.
Their away form has improved of late losing just one their last five but with two defeats on the bounce and just one win in five, their home form which has been instrumental in this promotion chasing season has tailed off.
While recent results have been poor, the corner counts have remained consistent with Over 11 corners landing in seven of Gillingham’s last eight homes.
They average 7.38 team corners over that time and although they have conceded an average of just 4.38 corners against, 13/15 games they have conceded over three corners at home this season have seen over 10 total corners.
Shrewsbury have spent most of the second half of the season hovering around the relegation zone and remain in trouble despite having the breathing space of a couple of points and a game in hand on the four teams below then
In contrast to Gillingham, most of their best work has been done on the road and with five wins, four draws and just two defeats in their last 11 away games, the team who are sixth in the away league table will fancy their chances of getting something here.
Although it hasn’t been the toughest run of games, Shrewsbury have been consistently hitting 4+ corners (8/8) and have also won over 7 team corners in four of those eight games.
They boast an impressive average of 6.25 team corners over that period and have also been conceding a fair number with three of their last eight hosts hitting over 11 and have on average, conceded 7.63 corners per game..
After back to back home defeats, nothing less than three points will do for Gillingham here and I expect them to come flying out the blocks in a final push to retain their play-off spot.
Shrewsbury will be encouraged by both their hosts indifferent recent home form and their own impressive run of away results and I fancy them to play their part in an open game which is so important to both sides for differing reasons.
The over 11 corners market is the focus but with four of Gillingham’s last eight homes finishing on 11 corners, I will take the insurance of my stake returned should it end on that total.
Gilingham v Shrewsbury – Over 11 Asian Corners (9/10 Bet365)
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