GROUP H gets underway on Tuesday afternoon as Colombia take on Japan in Saransk. Glenn Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) highlights the best betting opportunities.
Colombia v Japan | Tuesday 19th June 2018, 13:00 | BBC
The 2014 FIFA World Cup was the coming of age ceremony that Jose Pekerman promised for Colombia, with dynamic and free flowing performances from the entire squad.
Despite a 2-1 quarter-final defeat to host nation Brazil, the potential portrayed throughout their 2014 campaign was seen as a building block to potentially greater success for Los Cafeteros.
As the rumours circulate about the future of veteran Pekerman, success at the 2018 World Cup would be an unprecedented event in-which to call it a day on his remarkable managerial career.
The betting
The market is currently indicating Colombia posses an implied probability of 60.24%, which at this time appears to be Los Cafeteros most winnable game by a considerable margin. Setting a precedent early appears imperative as Group H contenders Poland are scheduled to take on Senegal only hours after Colombia’s opening encounter.
The perception currently attached with Group H suggests the South Americans possess an implied probability of 38.16%, while Poland possess 30.76% of the market share in the pool. If Pekerman’s dynamic side are to justify favouritism, the style of play they graced the world with in 2014 must make a reappearance.
So is the current price on the Over 2.25 Asian Goal line correct?
Analysing Colombia’s previous encounters when the markets perception has been in a similar state, can determine which side will be correct.
Has the market underestimated goals?
The similarities between the current markets perception and that of Colombia’s encounter against Costa Rica are striking. The implied probabilities in the Match Odds market are almost identical, weighing in at 60.24% and 60.60%.
An intriguing element from their game against Costa Rica was the weight of the money on the Over 2.25 goal line. The impact that weight of money had on the handicap is of slight concern, as the current Asian Handicap line and price are very similar.
Yet the price on Over 2.25 goals is significantly different. The average closing price for the -0.75 handicap line from the three previous occasions, in-which the market believed Colombia possessed an implied probability in the region of 60.60% has been 1.80 in decimals.
In correlation with the Asian Handicap market, the average price extracted for Over 2.25 Goals is 1.85. So with the market currently offering an implied probability of 51.28%, on an event that on average closes at around 54.05%, has the market underestimated Over 2.25 Goals due to recent form?
Japan’s data can confirm our findings
Japan’s market history can work in correlation with the data we extracted from Colombia’s historical logs, working as an aid which will help determine whether the current implied probabilities within the market are correct.
The Switzerland versus Japan encounter seems to possess a lot of similarities with the current market and the implied probability attached with Over 2.25 Goals is potentially where we may witness the current market shifting towards.
The narrative derived from historic market data from previous World Cup encounters, indicate the market generally sets a low Over/Under line, and for that reason I don’t believe we will observe any significant shifts here.
Asian Handicap value
However, the current implied probability attached with the -0.75 line from within the Asian Handicap may well attract some support. The implied probabilities extracted from the Asian Handicap market, indicates the closing price for the -0.75 line from Japan’s previous three encounters to be 1.78.
What price should the -0.75 Asian Handicap be? The working average extracted from the six market examples indicates an implied probability of 55.86%.
Therefore, with the current market offering an implied probability of 53.19% on an event, that on average closes with a price in the region of 1.79, it would be foolish not to have Los Cafeteros onside.
Best Bets
Colombia v Japan – Colombia -0.75 Asian Handicap (9/10 Bet365)
