THE final Last 16 clash arrives on Tuesday night as England take on Colombia in Moscow. Glenn Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) guides us through.
Colombia v England | Tuesday 3rd July 2018, 19:00 | ITV
Colombia secured top spot in Group H, with what could be described a fortunate victory over Senegal as neither side produced anything of real significance offensively. Jose Pekerman’s side registered a miserly two shots on-target, while they are averaging only 10 touches in the oppositions 18-yard box per-game.
Brutally precise conviction in-front of goal is a necessity at this stage of the competition and with doubts surrounding James Rodriguez, it would be of no surprise to observe significant movement in the markets as team news filters through prior to kick-off.
Yet the information surrounding the injury sustained by James has been unclear. Although it was revealed that he had sustained a minor injury in his right calf, there has been no indication to what the scale of the injury may be.
The performance put forth by Gareth Southgate’s side against Belgium was poor, the qualities that were evident against Tunisia and Panama were absent. Yet after eight changes, it was a positive result for England.
The argument of possessing momentum or finding the easier side of the draw, is a discussion that could continue for weeks. Both sides can find narratives that suit their argument.However, if England don’t qualify the side that argued in favour of momentum will feel vindicated, which evidently appears foolhardy.
The amount of variables that can occur in a single game are vast, with a single moment possessing monumental repercussions on the result. So by finding an event to suit a specific narrative without having a mass of efficient data to back an argument, the discussion between both sides falls apart.
Yet after England’s defeat to Belgium, the implied probability attached with the Three Lions in the Outright market began to rise with significant support being observed throughout numerous bookmakers.
The market has attached an implied probability of 23.75% with Colombia, which seems to be their most insignificant of the tournament so far. In each of Colombia’s three group encounters, the average closing price the market attached with Peckerman’s side was in the region of 20/21.
The last time Colombia were attached with anything close to the markets current perception, was an encounter against Ecuador in their World Cup qualifying campaign in-which Los Cafeteros possessed a closing price of 3/1 within the Match Odds market.
In correlation with the perception attached with Colombia, the market is currently indicating a price of 11/10 being attached with Southgate’s side, further demonstrating the support the Three Lions are receiving in their games, with the weight of the money firmly situated on their side.
Observing historic market data and the information that can be extracted can be a helpful aid in determining whether any inefficiencies exist in the current market. In 264 of the previous 521 (50.67%) encounters when the market has possessed a side with an implied probability of 24.93% or less, has resulted in both sides finding the net.
Therefore, with the market currently offering odds of 6/5 (Marathon) on an event that possesses an occurrence rate of 50.67%, it would be unwise not to have Both Teams To Score onside given the data on hand.
Colombia v England – Both Teams To Score (6/5 Marathon)