CHRIS Graham (@chrisgraham79) tells us all about a bet he thinks looks serious value in the Christmas Number One betting.
Christmas Number One | 25th December
The odds of this selection seem to be shortening every few hours but I thought I'd get something down on here as I've been banging on about it on Twitter over the last few days.
I've been a bit obsessed with the Christmas Number One since I was kid. Actually, that's wrong. Not a bit obsessed, massively obsessed. It tends to be my party trick as I can recite every winner of the accolade since the early 70's (usually) at the drop of a hat.
This year's race is less straight-forward than other years as the chart is announced on Christmas Day due to the new Friday charts. At the nub of this is the fact that the X-Factor record will be on it's second week of sales on Christmas chart week.
Since the turn of the century most sales of singles peak during their first week of release and then tend to decline from there. That has always been the case with the X-Factor singles where short-term hype over longevity rules the roost.
Almost always the X-Factor single has it's first week of sales during Christmas week and that inevitably pushes it to the top. But when Christmas week drops on it's second week things don't go to plan.
In 2011 Little Mix dropped off the top spot and were beaten by the Military Wives and Gareth Malone and the following year James Arthur lost out to The Justice Collective as the Christmas chart arrived on Week 2 of Arthur's release.
Over the last two years the X-Factor single has been released during Christmas week and normal order has been restored and they've got to No.1, Indeed I had a big bet on Sam Bailey in 2013 at fairly generous odds.
The negative with taking them on this year is the lack of a campaign record. When there's a cause close to the nations heart attached to one of the singles it can really help (see 2011's aren't the army really brave and 2012's outcry over the injustices of the Hillsborough Disaster).
This year though there might not be a cause but there's certainly a craze. The craze comes in two words – Justin and Bieber. It's been a sensational few months for the Canadian as he's gone from teen brat to cool kid. His new album has gone down in a storm almost everywhere thanks to his work with super-producers Skrillex and Diplo and he now gets played on night-time Radio 1 and hits the cover of the NME.
Brilliant Radio 1 DJ Annie Mac even tweeted her support for Bieber to be Christmas No.1 and it picked up nearly 400 RT's. Bieber fever is alive and well!
The beauty of backing Bieber is you get more than one runner for you. He's currently No.1 with Love Yourself and No.2 for Sorry. The former has been in the charts for four weeks, the latter seven weeks so the negative there is that neither are particularly fresh.
Around this time last year we saw Mark Ronson go on a long seven week run at No.1 with Uptown Funk. The only week he wasn't top when during the week the X-Factor single was released. I'm hoping we see the same this year with Bieber.
The Canadian is at his peak at the moment in the UK and has finally been accepted by the nation. His price has already collapsed from 8/1 into 4/1 in the last 24 hours and I can only see it getting smaller.
His popularity is enormous at the moment and I'm hoping it proves too strong for a here-today-gone-tomorrow X-Factor artist when the Christmas charts is announced live on TV on Christmas Day.
Best Bets
Christmas Number One – Justin Bieber to be Christmas Number One (4/1 Ladbrokes)
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