Cheltenham vs Manchester City | Saturday 23rd January 2021, 17:30 | BBC1
Like many of you I am sure, I do my best to limit my stakes during these stages of the FA Cup as it is often to guess what XI a top Premier League will put out.
In fairness to Pep Guardiola, he has generally made fewer changes than some other top Premier League managers, as was evidenced by the line up City put out against Birmingham in the previous round.
Seven of the XI against Birmingham started against Aston Villa in City’s last league game and I do not expect wholesale changes here even though City face West Brom and Sheffield United in the league in the next week.
One player who definitely will not play for City is Kevin De Bruyne and any side in the world would miss the injured Belgian. In fairness to City, they continued to create chances against Aston Villa once he went off on Wednesday but while they are undoubtedly more solid defensively than perhaps any season under Pep, you do wonder about their goal return over the next few weeks when they are without the creation of De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero is now out with COVID.
This season, City have managed just 31 goals in 18 Premier League games and while their expected number is five higher, De Bruyne played in 17 of their league games and missing his influence I wonder about their ability to create chances even though they are playing against a League Two side on this occasion.
Cheltenham are currently sixth in League Two and have only conceded 23 goals in the same number of matches so I expect them to be fairly solid defensively in this encounter. All things considered my view is that the 11/8 Boylesports are offering on City to win and Under 3.5 Goals is good value.
I would also look at the prices on Phil Foden to score anytime and the 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines on an exchange but the current offers are not attractive enough for me to be involved.
Cheltenham vs Manchester City – Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals (11/8 Boylesports)