CHELSEA welcome Manchester City on Wednesday night. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his thoughts on the Premier League encounter.
Chelsea vs Manchester City | Thursday 25rd June 2020, 20:15 | BT Sport
So, Man City have returned meaning business haven’t they? 8-0 on aggregate in their two games back, winning the shot count 39-4. They look back to their irresistible best.
The Citizens face their hardest challenge here though as they travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea. The Blues came from behind to win against Aston Villa on Sunday but it was largely down to them having a much stronger bench than Villa and squad depth is becoming ever more important in these times.
However, it’s hard to see anything but another City win here. Although their attacking approach and process is strong, seven teams have a better defence than Chelsea with the hosts conceding 40 goals this season. With that record, plus how razor sharp City are at the minute, it would be a shock if they could keep the away goals out.
Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Benjamin Mendy, Kyle Walker and Gabriel Jesus were all rested on Monday so Pep Guardiola's side should be fresh coming into this one. They’re by far and away the best team on the underlying performance metrics this season and they’re starting to get their just rewards. City at 5/6 look a more than fair price but I’ll dip into the BetBuilder market to try get a bigger price out of it.
It’s hard to see past a few goals so I’ll add Over 1 Goal into the mix. I also wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a couple of cards so adding each team to collect Over 0 Cards looks worthwhile – Chelsea average 1.8 cards per-game whereas Man City average around two. Add all these four together and that gives us a 7/4 (Bet365) shot.
I’m going to stick with bet365 for my other selection too. Under their player tab they’ve priced up some player props and the one that stands out is Rodrigo, City’s holding midfielder, to win Over 1.5 Tackles which is priced at 4/5.
Rodrigo in a position where tackles are usually rife, and with the dribbling ability of Mason Mount and Matteo Kovacic in the middle of the park I think he will have plenty of chances to take the ball off them should he start. The Spaniard averages 1.8 tackles per-90 in the league but that figure shoots up to 2.8 in the Champions League, perhaps highlighting his penchant for hitting higher lines against better opposition.
For Atletico Madrid, Rodrigo averaged three tackles per-game and this bet landed in the reverse fixture. For context. he’s as short as 1/2 elsewhere so there looks to be a bit in that price from 365.