Chelsea vs Leeds | Saturday 5th December 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Of all the Premier League fixtures this weekend, this one is the most intriguing. Having started the season fairly poorly, with just one victory from their first three games, Chelsea have won four and drawn three of their next seven and now only conceded two goals in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
However, they face a Leeds side who will not respect such statistics. Marco Bielsa's men scored three times at Anfield, were involved in a pulsating game against Manchester City that finished 1-1, comfortably beat Aston Villa 3-0 and have found the net in eight of their 10 Premier League games.
In the two Leeds failed to score in – against Wolves and Arsenal – they recorded 38 shots in total. Indeed, in their last two matches against Arsenal and Everton they recorded 25 and 23 shots respectively. While they only managed one sublime goal from Raphinha, expected goals suggests they should have scored five.
In addition to all of this, you have the historical bad blood between the two sides and the more recent matches between Derby and Leeds when Frank Lampard managed the former to a playoff semi-final victory.
There will be 2,000 Chelsea fans in attendance but that does little to alter my thinking. I expect both sides to score but think the home side will just about prevail. I did look at Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals but am struggling to find Even money available so have instead opted for Chelsea to win and BTTS. That is available at 9/5 with Boylesports.
I also considered backing a 2-1 victory for the home side but actually preferred backing a couple of Leeds players in the cards markets.
Mateusz Klich has conceded 23 fouls this season (the most in the Premier League) and has been booked three times in 10 games. The Polish midfielder is likely to need to make a lot of tackles so the 10/3 with BetVictor looks like good value to me.
Stuart Dallas has also received three bookings this season and while he doesn't make anywhere as many fouls as Klich, I think Chelsea's wide players will cause him plenty of problems. There is some doubt as to whether he will play left back or right back but Werner and Chilwell and Ziyech and James are equally challenging. Dallas is 11/2, also with BetVictor, to be cautioned and that seems mighty big to me.
Chelsea vs Leeds – Chelsea to win and Both Teams To Score (9/5 Boylesports)
Chelsea vs Leeds – Mateusz Klich to be booked (10/3 BetVictor)
Chelsea vs Leeds – Stuart Dallas to be booked (11/2 BetVictor)