Chelsea vs Krasnodar | Tuesday 8th December 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Sometimes you have to be honest with yourself and admit that a team are a lot better than you originally gave them credit for, and that is certainly the case with Chelsea.
Having watched them in their opening few matches against Brighton, Liverpool and West Brom, I thought Frank Lampard was in real danger of losing his job pretty swiftly. They were second best for the most part against Brighton, barely laid a glove on Liverpool and found themselves 3-0 down at The Hawthorns before half-time.
The Blues did come back to draw that game against the Baggies but I didn’t think they created much given their dominance of the ball and they were indebted to VAR failing to spot a clear and obvious handball in the run up to their equaliser.
Since those opening three fixtures, they have won five and drawn three games in the Premier League, scoring 17 goals and conceding just five themselves, with underlying data showing that this is no fluke. They really impressed me in victory over a good Leeds side last weekend, while they have been almost flawless in the Champions League, winning four and drawing one while conceding just a single goal.
Last week’s four-goal victory over Sevilla was particularly impressive and means that they face Krasnador knowing that they have qualified for the knockout stages and have topped the group.
Krasnador themselves also have little to play for, with a Europa League Last 32 spot also secured so that makes it a tougher to find a bet, with rotation likely.
One thing I did note is that when Krasnador do lose, there tends to be a few goals. Their three defeats in the group stages have all seen three goals or more, while nine of Chelsea’s ten victories across the Premier League and Champions League have also seen Over 2.5 Goals. This suggests to me that Chelsea to win and Over 2.5 Goals is a good angle and the 7/10 Betway are offering is of value.
I would also suggest 10% of your usual stake on a couple of correct scores. Chelsea to win 3-0 is 15/2 with BetVictor, while 3-1 is 10/1 with SkyBet. Four of Chelsea’s 10 victories this season have been by either of these scorelines and I expect them to score a few here. Hopefully two of the three bets oblige but even if Chelsea win 2-1 or score four or more goals themselves, you will be in profit.