CHELSEA host London rivals Arsenal on Tuesday night. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from the Premier League encounter.
Chelsea v Arsenal | Tuesday 21st January 2020, 20:15 | BT Sport
It’s an all-London affair that takes centre stage on Tuesday night as Chelsea host Arsenal at Stamford Bridge at the odd time of 8:15pm. Both failed to win at the weekend and will be looking to bounce back here.
Chelsea dominated against Newcastle but lacked the killer pass too often against a low block, they were then hit with a sucker punch in the last minute as Isaac Hayden flicked in an excellent Allan Saint-Maximin cross to defeat the Blues by a goal to nil.
It was a season that started so well for Frank Lampard and his young team, however they’ve struggled for consistency of late with no back-to-back league wins since early November. It looks like the Cobham crew could be busy players in the transfer window as their ban was overturned meaning they can once again trade in the market.
Olivier Giroud has an impending move to Inter Milan in the pipeline whilst there have been murmurings around the future of Marcos Alonso, Emerson, Ross Barkley and Michy Batshuayi.
Tammy Abraham has overtaken Batshuayi and Giroud as the main striker at the Bridge and Lampard is on the hunt for competition with rumoured interest around former Celtic striker Moussa Dembele. With Chelsea still in the Champions League and FA Cup they could do with a few more back ups but I’d be surprised if they brought more than two in this month.
Mikel Arteta has come into Arsenal with a clear focus on trying to sure up their previously shoddy defence. To be fair he has sorted it to some extent, although it seems to have hampered them slightly at the other end of the pitch.
Arsenal, so long the overs backers best friend, have seen just one of their last six league games see three or more goals. If this game was in the early months of the season I’d certainly be looking at a goals based angle but it’s not something I can entertain at the prices given current form of both. Six of the last eight Chelsea games have seen Under 2.5 land too so maybe the value could be against a goal-heavy game.
Having said that the Expected Goals (xG) of Chelsea games averages out at 3.30 per-game whilst Arsenal have a figure of 2.90 on the same metric. It’s a lot of clashing trends that makes me happy to swerve the under/over markets.
Chelsea look short enough in the market at odds-on given their inconsistent nature whilst Arsenal are missing star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang due to suspension, centre half Sokratis could also be out. It could mean a return to the team for Shkodran Mustafi who has been less than convincing when he’s played this campaign. That, along with Arsenal’s inability to win away puts me off the them too so the outright market too looks a no-go zone.
Play your cards right
With little appealing in the basic markets I’m happy to delve into the cards for this one and we can back both teams to fetch Over 1 Card at 6/5 using Bet365’s BetBuilder and that takes appeal. Arsenal average 2.52 cards in the league this season, the highest in the league. However, they’re the third highest fouled team in the league too which often resorts to this bet landing in Gunners games.
Stuart Atwell has the whistle and he’s been a card happy ref in recent times. He’s dished out 8, 2, 8, 8, 5 and 3 cards in his last six games and his average this season is a massive 5.44 cards per-game over domestic and European matches.
If we cast our minds back just a few weeks, these two met in a game that featured now fewer than nine bookings! Five were handed out to the Gunners whilst Chelsea had four yellows. Incredibly Atwell has given both teams four cards a piece in two of his last games games (Wolves vs Spurs and Bournemouth vs Arsenal). Both teams to collect Over 3 Cards is available to back at 20/1 on Bet365’s BetBuilder and that has to be worth a quid or two for interest given those stats.
This game also sees the return of David Luiz to Stamford Bridge. The frizzy haired Brazilian has regularly been mocked for his questionable defending but he, more than anyone, seems to have benefitted from the arrival of Arteta. Luiz has spoke highly of the new gaffer and has been candid in calling out his sides inefficiencies.
He scored some worldie goals in his days at the Bridge, and given he is on free kicks from a fair few yards outside the area it’s always likely he will have at least a shot. He has managed one shot outside the box in four of his last five Premier League games and I’m very surprised you can get some 11/5 on him to have a shot outside the box with Coral’s BuildYourBet.
I’m also willing to chuck in the 2+ shots outside the box at a bulbous 16/1. All it takes is them to get a free kick or two centrally in their attacking half. The shot doesn’t even have to be on target. I expect these prices to get slashed pretty quickly but I’d probably back them respectively down to 1/1 and 10/1.