THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE returns on Tuesday night. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from matches not involving Premier League interest.
Napoli v Red Bull Salzburg | Tuesday 5th November 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
Red Bull Salzburg have been a welcome shot in the arm for Europe’s most prestigious competition. Under American head coach Jesse Marsch, the Austrian champions have been brave with their gung-ho approach. Goals have been in plentiful supply with a mammoth 20 strikes scored in their three games, a mind-boggling average of 6.66 per-game.
It’s therefore no surprise that this game has a goal line of 3.5 but I still think there’s value in backing the overs here at just shy of even-money. Even though Salzburg have scored 11 goals, they’ve only picked up the three points and there’s therefore more pressure on them to get something from their visit to the Sao Paolo.
They’ve got every chance of causing some problems though with their impressive front three of Erling Haaland, Takumi Minamino and Hwang Hee-Chan. The trio have been directly involved in 15 goals for Die Mozartstader and they’ll be fearless even in the intimidating atmosphere in Naples.
Only Bayern Munich and Real Madrid are posting greater shot volume than Salzburg so we can see where their philosophy lies. However, it’s not all great. Their backline bears the brunt of criticism but it’s part and parcel of how they play; they can be left with four versus four and three v three situations due to their high press and the strong teams like Napoli and Liverpool punished them for it.
The Partenopei themselves have a dangerous front line. Dries Mertens and hometown boy Lorenzo Insigne both notched in the reverse fixture a fortnight ago and with Arkadiusz Milik starting to get among the goals, plus the alternative threats of Hirving Lozano, Jose Callejon and Fabian Ruiz they’re well stacked in forward areas of the pitch.
This promises to be another cracker of a game and with the attacking potential on show you’d have to think there will be goals galore on the Amalfi coast. Over 3.5 Goals is the bet (10/11 Bet365).
Valencia v Lille | Tuesday 5th November 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
One of the more interesting games comes in Spain as consistently inconsistent Valencia welcome Lille to the Mestella.
Head coach Marcelino was recently dismissed, much to the dismay of the Valencia faithful. He’d managed to get this side competitive in the league and punch their weight on the European scene too, doing well in the Europa League. He managed to meet the pretty high demands of the fans overall and Singapore-based owner Peter Lim has been the subject of hate from the crowd in recent weeks.
Los Che were known for their hard-working nature and sturdy resolve under the strict gaffer but since he’s gone their defensive deficiencies have shown. Since the sacking on 11th September, Los Che have conceded in 10/12 in all competitions, conceding three or more goals in four of those games. That been said they have contributed a bit more going forward and both teams have scored in their last six in all competitions.
The Spaniards were very close to bagging maximum points in the reverse fixture in north-east France, a 94t- minute Jonathan Ikone goal meant a share of the spoils but on the balance of play the hosts probably deserved more than that. Lille won the Expected Goals (xG) battle 2.04-0.59 and racked up no fewer than 27 shots.
Benjamin Andre has been an inspired signing by the savvy recruitment team at the Stade Pierre Mauroy and he bossed the midfield again. Head honcho Christophe Galtier has a lot of options going forward now: the two Jonathan’s – Bamba and Ikone – were only on the bench for that game but both made an impact once coming on and could both start here .
Lille still have to go to Stamford Bridge and welcome Ajax to the Flanders region and with just a single point to their name wins are becoming a must. Lille themselves have seen BTTS cop in six of their last seven and the 10/11 (Bet365) simply looks too big to ignore.
Zenit St Petersburg v RB Leipzig | Tuesday 5th November 2019, 17:55 | BT Sport
This Champions League campaign has been full of drama and goals and I’m happy to get on board the goal bus again as Leipzig make the trip north to a bitter St Petersburg. Fresh off an 8-0 spanking of Mainz the money has understandably come for the East-Germans who’ve been backed into 7/5 from 7/4 last week.
Some will be looking at that 7/5 and thinking it’s a good thing with the rate they’re scoring goals but there’s easier places to go than the Gazprom Arena. Zenit have W20-D4-L1 of their home games in the Russian Premier League and they've converted that home league form into Europe too, winning five of their last six UCL ties here, as well as five from six in the Europa League.
In big Artum Dzubya and Sardar Azmoun they have alternative threats up front and Julian Nagelsmann sides usually give ample opportunities to their counterparts should they beat the press. I wouldn’t want to rule out Zenit’s chances of a win here in a tight looking group but I’m slightly more inclined to take the goals angle once again after seeing the flying form of Timo Werner and co scoring 14 in their last two outings.
Nagelsmann’s Hoffenheim side we’re well known for their goal-rich games and it’s an attacking approach that is easy on the eye and conducive to open clashes. Over 2 Goals and Both Teams To Score are a bit too short to put up respectively but we can get a much more attractive and backable 10/11 quote when combining them both with Bet365.
Best Bets
Napoli v Red Bull Salzburg – Over 3.5 Goals (10/11 Bet365)
Valencia v Lille – Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
Zenit St Petersburg v Leipzig – Over 2 Goals and Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)
