PSG vs Bayern Munich | Sunday 23rd August 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
The Champions League final is finally upon us. The scene is set. Two juggernauts of the European scene meet in Lisbon in what promises to be a highly entertaining affair.
Paris Saint-Germain and Thomas Tuchel are aiming for an unprecedented quadruple in what has to go down as an excellent campaign. They did labour to victories against Saint-Etienne and Lyon (after penalties) but the fact is their winning mentality saw them through.
I liked what I saw from Les Parisiens last summer and attempt to beef up the midfield with the signings of Ander Herrera and Idrissa Gueye, rather than going all out on a superstar they were more pragmatic in their dealings. Mauro Icardi came in too and he’s performed well in this competition.
It’s this trophy, though, that the hierarchy at the club have so long sought after. We’ve come accustomed to PSG bottling it in quarter -finals but that hoodoo has been put to rest as they impressively swatted aside two decent teams in Atalanta and Leipzig.
I was especially impressed with them earlier in the week against Die Roten Bullen, they dominated for large swathes of the match and were defensively sound against a tricky opponent. Neymar once again shone going forward and this could be a career defining game for the samba boy.
I wonder if the way Bayern Munich play could fall into their hands. FC Hollywood, a nickname that could equally be attributed to PSG, like to press extremely high and with intensity, winning the ball back in dangerous areas. With the counter-attacking threat of trio Neymar, Angel Di Maria and Kylian Mbappe they could spin in behind that high defensive line and get themselves into one-on-one situations.
Bayern implement such a style because they know they can simply outscore teams. They don’t mind conceding one or two because the likelihood is they will score three or four, or eight. The Bavarians were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Lyon in midweek; Les Gones racked up 1.82 Expected Goals (xG) and if it wasn’t for the profligacy of front two Memphis Depay and Karl Toko-Ekambi they could’ve asked a few more questions of the Germans.
Before that game Bayern had conceded in seven of their last nine and with how red-hot PSG are going forward in this competition it’s so hard to go against a goal-laden game with both sides on the scoresheet.
The betting angle
BTTS is understandably short and the goal line is set at 3.5, a figure you rarely see in a final.
I do think the bookies have got the majority of markets priced up bang on so I’ll head to SkyBet’s Request-A-Bet market and plump for Over 1.5 Goals, 3+ Corners Each Team and 40+ Booking Points, which is a nice even-money shot.
Both sides do tot up the corners simply because they love to attack and get shots off. In the middle we have Mr Danielle Orsato, which I love to see. The Italian is one of the continent's most card happy refs, he averages 5.4 cards per-game domestically and that goes up to 6.6 in this competition. Throw in the fact this is a final and tensions will be high, the cards should flow, particularly with Neymar on the pitch.
Let's hope for a corker to end the season.
PSG vs Bayern Munich – Over 1.5 Goals, 3+ Corners Each Team and 40+ Booking Points (1/1 Sky Bet)