LA LIGA continues its resumption on Saturday with Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) sharing his research on Celta Vigo's fixture with Villarreal.
Celta Vigo vs Villarreal | Saturday 13th June 2020, 16:00 | La Liga TV
As La Liga was suspended, Celta Vigo started to build up a head of steam and went five games unbeaten. The Balaidos boys need to resume that progress if they want top-tier football next term.
Los Celestes sit just one point above the drop zone in 17th, but on WhoScored data, they have the easiest of the run-ins from the sides at the bottom end of the table, with this being one of their more difficult assignments.
Villarreal had won just one of their last six games in all competitions before the break and that’s seen a seven-point gap build between themselves and the European spots. It’s fair to say that the Yellow Submarine's defence has been leaky. It’s just two away clean sheets all season.
Shooting for glory
Villarreal have some interesting figures as they return to action. They sit third in the Expected Goals (xG) table with an output of 47.71 xG. When it comes to shots per 90, the Yellow Submarine ranks second with 13.48. And, their shots on target per 90 average is the third-best in the Spanish top-flight at 4.37.
Celta’s figures are much lower and that’s part of the reason they find themselves in their predicament. They sit third-lowest for shots per 90 at 9.52, with just 3.3 hitting the target. In terms of xG, they’ve created just 28.49xG. However, they do manage to restrict their opposition with just a 33.42xGA.
So, there’s a chance the hosts will have to stifle this attacking Villarreal side, who don’t mind a pop at goal, but it’s the visitors who have a worse xGA and have conceded more goals, so a glimmer of hope for Celta. That makes it a bit of a head-scratcher!
Players to watch
Pione Sisto found himself in hot water when breaking lockdown laws, but is likely to feature. I saw him in the flesh a few years ago against Atletico Madrid and was impressed by his pace and power.
He’s only scored two goals this season, but one of them was an important late winner against Sevilla. Meanwhile, he tops the shooting accuracy charts for the club with 48%, so could be worth looking at his shots on target markets.
The main man for Oscar Garcia’s side is former Liverpool man Iago Aspas. He’s single-handedly dug them out of holes at times with nine goals. But he can be hot-headed and with six cautions to his name is one that could end up in Valentin Pizarro’s notebook.
The betting angles
It’s a case of being careful as both sets of players get back into the rhythm and swing of things. A few punters will note what’s happened in Germany with games behind closed doors looking to have a negative impact on home performances. However, I’ve noticed an angle regarding both sides and it looks to be worth siding with here at an odds-against price. This is stats-heavy, so stick with me.
There have only been 22 goals scored in their home games this season – an average of 1.69 per game, so relatively low-scoring. Breaking that down further, 68% (15) of those goals have come in the second half.
The stats point to a dour first half. There have only been 15 first half goals in Celta’s league games this season – they’ve only netted five of those. Plus here at Balaidos, there have only been seven goals before the break with Celta netting just two.
Again it’s a similar pattern with Villarreal. Their games average 3.04 goals per game, but on the road that reduces to 2.79 per game. And, 59% of those goals have come after the break (23 of 39).
Given the is the first game back and the Spanish June heat taking its toll, then backing the most goals to be scored in the second half looks a sensible play on this evidence at 11/10 with Betfair. The 0-0 half-time score might tempt a few in with that being the outcome in seven of Celta’s 13 home games that have seen blank first 45s. It’s 15/8 with Sky Bet, but it’s not a market that can draw me in.
I was having a play with the Bet Builders because the player prop markets aren’t as appealing as they get back up to speed. Celta are unbeaten in six at home and each of them have seen under five goals, so Celta in the Double Chance market in a low-scoring game starts it off.
Then, back a card in the second half for both sides. Villarreal have picked up 44 of their 61 cautions after the break. While for Celta, 50 of 74 cards have been in the second 45 minutes. And referee Valentin Pizarro Gomez has shown 36 of 47 cautions in the second half, which makes this Bet Builder (11/8 Bet365) look rather solid given that fatigue is likely to play a part.