CARDIFF welcome Burnley to the Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday. Football expert Ross Casey (@rosscasey24) analyses the Super Sunday clash.
Cardiff v Burnley | Sunday 30th September 2018, 16:00 | Sky Sports
Newly-promoted Cardiff will still feel they have a chance of survival despite picking up just two points from six games so far this season and that is largely down to the fact that there are so many misfiring sides in the Premier League alongside them so far this season.
There are nine teams on six points or less in the league table after six matches played, which is proof that there is such disparity from the top-half and the bottom-half.
Matches like this – a home game against Burnley (who have picked up just a single win in 90 minutes in 13 attempts this season, which started in July for the Clarets) – become massive six pointers despite being just the seventh league fixture of the season.
In the Championship, the Bluebirds were very good on home soil, not one side could boast more than the 16 home wins that Neil Warnock's side managed, but this season they have lost three and drawn once at the Cardiff City Stadium.
The European dream turned into a nightmare for Burnley who have now played many more matches than their competitors in the Premier League, and unfortunately started the season on a downer having been eliminated in the qualification rounds – despite playing six matches.
Sean Dyche was critical of a lack of cutting edge against Burton in midweek, where they lost 2-1 to the League One outfit, which must have been even more frustrating considering they put four past Bournemouth last weekend.
What has been quite surprising to me is the gung-ho nature of Cardiff this season at home, and the relish that Warnock seems to be displaying in going at the bigger sides in the Premier League.
Despite the attempt to go toe-to-toe with these teams, Cardiff have managed just 18 shots on-target in seven games this season, which is clearly not good enough.
I think that they need to go back to basics and make sure that they have a solid backline – it is clear this squad isn't good enough to outplay sides.
So in my opinion, the Welsh side should revert to the tactics that got them to the dance in the first play, not trying to have too much of the ball but being very dangerous from set-plays and counter-attacks, whilst keeping a defensive mindset to keep a clean sheet first and foremost.
In their last three home games Cardiff have conceded 11 times at home, which is unheard of from last season where they let in just 16 in 23 league matches.
Burnley have won just one match this season in 13, but incredibly they are the form team as Cardiff are winless all season. That is a current season record of one win in 20 matches for these two teams.
With that in mind, plenty will be looking at the draw here which is available at 21/10. That may well be a positive result for Burnley, who have lost four away games in a row to a select set of sides which are hardly impressive – Olympiakos, Fulham, Wolves and Burton.
The betting angle
As I have noted, I fully expect Cardiff to return to their previous ways for this fixture and with both of their matches against bottom-half opposition going Under 1.5 Goals, that has to be taken into consideration even though each of the last four Cardiff matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals.
I can look beyond that as for some reason they have been chasing games of late and I am hoping they go back to being full Warnock here.
This selection is available at 15/8 and despite going against the grain on current form, looks perfectly plausible.
Cardiff v Burnley – Under 1.5 Goals (15/8 Betfair)