CARDIFF welcome Brighton to the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday. Football expert Ross Casey (@rosscasey24) analyses the early weekend clash.
Cardiff v Brighton | Saturday 10th November 2018, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Newly-promoted Cardiff will still feel they have a chance of survival despite picking up just five points from 11 games so far this season and that is largely down to the fact that there are so many misfiring sides in the Premier League alongside them.
There are seven teams yet to score double digits in points at this stage, which is proof that there is such disparity from the top-half and the bottom-half.
Matches like this – a home game against Brighton (who have picked up just a single win in six attempts this season away from home) – become massive for the Bluebirds, despite it being just the 12th league fixture of the campaign.
In the Championship, Cardiff were very good on home soil, not one side could boast more than the 16 home wins that Neil Warnock's side managed, but this season they have picked up just a single victory at their Welsh base.
Despite this, Cardiff are favourites to win this one (Neil Warnock's 100th match in charge) with best odds of 13/8.
Brighton are in 12th position just seven points off Man Utd in seventh and were on a three-match winning streak before their 3-1 away loss at Everton, so it it is somewhat of a surprise to see them the underdogs in this one with odds of 11/5 available.
As previously noted however, most of their points have been accumulated at home and this is a meeting of a side with just one home win against a team with one away!
In their seven home games this season across all competitions, they have conceded 16 goals which is unheard of from last season where they let in just 16 in 23 league matches. I think in this match a return to a resolute defence could be in order.
Brighton are missing key creative spark Pascal Gross and the Seagulls have only netted four times in their six away matches this season, so a low-scoring game could well be in order – just like last weekend where the hosts lost 1-0 to Leicester.
That broke a spell of five matches in a row at the Cardiff City Stadium that went Over 2.5 Goals. The bookies appear to agree with me making the Under 2.5 Goals odds-on at 59/100 with Marathon. A slightly better price is available on Both Teams Not To Score at 17/20 with BetVictor.
If there are to be goals you can do worse than backing Callum Paterson, who is likely to play up front ahead of the goal-shy Bobby Reid and Kenneth Zohore who is injured. Paterson is a bigger price than both of those players in the Anytime Goalscorer market at 67/20 with Marathon and has two goals in his last three games.
Brighton have only lost one of their last five matches against Cardiff and look a little underrated in the betting markets.
I realise they have a poor away record, but 4/7 on them in the Double Chance market is decent value here in my opinion, and even better when you combine it with Under 2.5 Goals at 188BET and get 6/5.
The betting angle
As I have noted, I fully expect this game to be a low-scoring one and I also think that Brighton have been a little undervalued here.
Therefore, Brighton double chance and Under 2.5 Goals with 188BET is my selection.
Cardiff v Burnley – Brighton double chance and Under 2.5 Goals (6/5 188BET)