IT'S the most romantic tie of FA Cup Fourth Round weekend. Can League Two side Cambridge United get anything from big, bad Manchester United on Friday night? Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) has found a way of siding with them.
Cambridge United v Manchester United | Friday 20:00 | BBC1
No surprise to see the BBC covering this game. They'll be desperate to cover a shock to justify the money they spent recapturing the rights to the FA Cup this season. It might be a long wait lads!
Louis Van Gaal's side go into this game at 2/9 with most firms including BetVictor to cruise through to the FA Cup Fifth Round and it's hard to disagree with that long odds-on assessment.
It's Cambridge though, (16/1 with Betfair) that are capturing my mind here. I'm a big believer that big matches affect teams before and after that specific encounter and usually in a negative way.
I've written loads about my self-styled Hangover Effect, when teams suffer after they achieve incredible results. We saw it two weeks ago when Spurs followed up their epic win against Chelsea by losing 2-1 to Crystal Palace. There are numerous other examples littered over the last year in football. Trust me.
On the other side of the chronological fence there's a case to suggest that impending big matches affect the nerves of sides leading up to the big day. Examples Chris? Okay, well how about Hull? After they qualified for the FA Cup Final on April 13th last year they lost four of their last five league matches before their big day.
Another one? Blyth Spartans? Seven consecutive league and cup wins, then with Birmingham in the FA Cup on the horizon they lose to struggling Witton Albion six days beforehand.
Anyway my point is that Cambridge's form hasn't suffered in the run up to this fixture. A win at Carlisle two weeks ago was followed by a stunning 4-0 destruction of in-form Newport on Saturday. The dressing room sees buoyant.
How can I side with them here? Well, I'll get involved with my favourite market just now – Over 0.5 Goals. Yes, Coral are offering 6/5 on Cambridge simply scoring and that appeals to me.
Richard Money's side are in the Top 5 highest scorers at home in League Two and have scored in 12 of their 15 home ties this season. When you combine that with the fact Manchester United have won just three out of 11 away games in the Premier League this season then there's a case to get involved.
Cambridge United v Manchester United – Cambridge to score Over 0.5 Goals (6/5 Coral)