BURNLEY host West Ham on Monday night in a Premier League encounter. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Burnley vs West Ham | Monday 3rd May 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Burnley took a giant leap to Premier League survival with a 4-0 demolition of Wolves courtesy of Chris Wood’s first-half hat-trick.
I’d say another season in the top-flight is all but secure for the Clarets. Now the board will have to look at ways to entice Sean Dyche to stay, as paper talk starts linking him to the Crystal Palace job.
Back-to-back defeats have damaged West Ham’s top-four aspirations. They could drop down the table if results go against them this weekend, while their battle with Chelsea and Liverpool for that Champions League spot intensifies.
And to turn things around, they’re off to Turf Moor. David Moyes would probably have preferred a kinder fixture than this – at least he’ll know what to expect on the trip north to Lancashire. But West Ham are winless in their last three Premier League away games against Burnley (D1, L2).
The injuries to Michail Antonio and Declan Rice have had an impact on the way the Hammers have performed in recent games. Antonio’s clever runs to stretch opposition backlines have been missed, while Rice does give them a solid platform in front of the centre-halves.
Not only that, but defensive pairing Aaron Cresswell and Arthur Masuaku are ruled out through injuries. However, Fabián Balbuena is available after his red card against Chelsea was rescinded.
Nine-tenths of the law
There’s a famous expression about possession being nine-tenths of the law. However, Burnley and West Ham would be the outliers in that sort of scenario.
The Hammers sit 15th at 43.5% and the Clarets are 17th (43.2%) for average possession this season, so it creates a bit of a dilemma trying to determine which side will take the initiative.
And in a similar sort of sense, you could say both sides can be quite stand-offish without putting too much pressure on the ball.
These two are 17th and 18th in the standings for tackles per game (both 13pg), with only Man City (12.5) and Arsenal (12.2) making fewer, so that could potentially remove any shine from angles in the passing and tackles markets.
The betting angles
With Antonio absent and doubts over the fitness of Jesse Lingard over the past couple of weeks, then that could hamper the visitors’ attacking threat. Pablo Fornals, Saïd Benrahma and Jarrod Bowen are all able deputies, but they prefer to drift wide meaning a lack of threat through central areas.
Despite scoring four last weekend, Burnley games are often slow burners with few goals. At Turf Moor, only one of their 16 home league matches has seen 4+ goals – a 3-2 win over Aston Villa.
So, with 15 games seeing three goals or fewer, it might be worth taking the hosts to nullify the Hammers in a low-scoring contest – Burnley double chance and under 4 goals is 11/10 using Bet365’s bet builder feature. And it’s a bet that has landed in 9/16 this term, and more recently, in 5/6 games at Turf Moor.
For West Ham, they’ve only won once in their last five away games (D1, L3), with three of those games seeing under 4 goals. On top of that, the Hammers have lost three of their last four v Burnley and have failed to score in those matches, including on each of their last two visits to Lancashire.
The other angle revolves around last week’s main man for the Clarets, Chris Wood. The Kiwi loves facing the Hammers – he’s scored more Premier League goals against them (6 in 7) than he has against any other side. And he’s netted in all three of his games at Turf Moor v West Ham.
Last weekend’s hat-trick took him into double figures, so I broke down the method of his goals. Seven with his right foot, two with his head and one counted as other – that scruffy goal v Arsenal.
He’s also Burnley’s top man for shots on target (35), so breaking that down to focus on how he’s tested the opposition keeper sees 19 right-footed shots on target, with 12 headers.
So, when you bear in mind that he’s around 1/5 for a shot on target, it might be worth dipping the toe into the shots on target specials markets. Sky Bet go 10/11 for 1+ right-footed shot on target and Paddy Power are 7/4 for a headed shot on target.
54% of his shots on target have been with his right foot compared to 34% with his head. Both of those look about right given 10/11 implies a 52% probability of landing, while the 7/4 is a 36%.
The Kiwi hasn’t been shot-shy of late. He’s had 27 shots in his last seven outings at 3.9 per game, while recording 16 shots on target, including 3+ in four of those seven. I can see him being pivotal to Burnley as ever, so a few markets could appeal, from anytime scorer to 2+ shots on target.
Given what I’ve got above, the 10/11 looks worth a play, while his recent stats suggest the 5/1 for 2+ right-footed shots on target could be an avenue to explore too.
Best Bets
Burnley vs West Ham – Chris Wood 1+ right-footed shot on target (10/11 Sky Bet)
Burnley vs West Ham – Burnley Double Chance & Under 4 Goals (11/10 Bet365)
