BURNLEY welcome Sheffield United to Turf Moor on Sunday afternoon. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Burnley vs Sheffield United | Sunday 5th July 2020, 12:00 | Sky Sports
Sheffield United head to Burnley on the back of a comprehensive 3-1 win over Spurs that had its share of VAR drama. That was their first win back and it was their first goals scored after firing three blanks.
Burnley continue to go about their business quietly and a win would see them overtake Sheffield United in the league table. Monday’s 1-0 victory at Crystal Palace gave Nick Pope his 13th clean sheet – a league-high. Eight of those shutouts have come here at Turf Moor and it’s helped to see the Clarets average 1.63 points per game on home soil.
There’s not much between these two in the league table, and there’s very little on the metrics as well. The Expected Goals data is equally as close:
- Burnley Expected Goals: 35.2 xG
- Sheffield United Expected Goals: 36.4 xG
- Burnley Expected Goals Against: 40.6xGA
- Sheffield United Expected Goals Against: 40.3xGA
On that evidence, the stalemate looks likely. Add in shooting data and it points in that direction once more. Burnley average 9.87 shots per 90, while Sheffield United average 9.69 – the lowest in the top-flight. When it comes to hitting the target, the Blades are joint-lowest at just 3 per 90 compared to 3.25 for Burnley per 90.
That points to a closely fought game between two sides that might be able to sneak into a European spot.
The betting angles
I’ve been looking through the player prop markets here and a couple of familiar faces look worth siding with at the prices.
One I won’t wager because it will be team news and system dependent, but if Erik Pieters starts as a left-winger, as he did at Selhurst Park on Monday, then the 5/1 with Ladbrokes and Pokerstars on him to record a shot on target will be worth a play.
The man to start with here is Burnley’s left-back Charlie Taylor. We know how Chris Wilder sets his side up with lots of width and 42% of Sheffield United’s play comes down their right. So, that should make for lunchtime for Taylor. In the three games since resumption, he’s made nine tackles, three in each. The bar for him is at 2+ for an odds-against price, which looks too good to turn down.
Taylor has made 2+ in 10 games this season, so his recent run of getting stuck in is likely to continue, especially with what Sean Dyche demands of his defence. 2+ tackles at 5/4 with Pokerstars is the main play, but the 3+ at 37/10 with the same firm might be worth a nibble.
The other man in a claret shirt to focus on is Dwight McNeil. The 20-year-old is making a name for himself this season and has already notched two goals and recorded six assists. The winger has 41 shots with 13 on target from his 32 starts for Burnley this campaign, so it’s worth diving into the shots market.
On Monday at Palace, McNeil had four shots with two on target, and in this one here could have some space to exploit. Looking through his data, he’s recorded a fair few shots on target in home games.
His shots on target average is 0.4 generally this season, but it rises to 0.6 here at Turf Moor. Before the break, he had one against Spurs and two v Bournemouth as examples.
The lively wide man is worth having on side given the two teams setups. His prices vary from around 11/10 for 1+ shot on target to 17/10 with Paddy Power, which I’ll be taking. It’s also worth noting Ladbrokes go 11/20 for 2+ shots in general while it’s 4/5 with both Betfair and Paddy Power, and that might appeal to some.
In what could be a tight contest, these two players could well make hay for us in respective player prop markets.
Burnley v Sheffield United – Charlie Taylor 2+ tackles (5/4 Pokerstars)
Burnley v Sheffield United – Dwight McNeil 1+ shot on target (17/10 Paddy Power)