Burnley vs Newcastle Betting Preview & Tips


BURNLEY host Newcastle on Sunday in the Premier League. Marcus Ally (@Marcus_Ally_4) oversees the encounter.

Burnley vs Newcastle | Sunday 11th April 2021, 12:00 | Sky Sports

Relegation scrappers Newcastle United face Sean Dyche’s Burnley this Sunday lunchtime looking to give themselves some breathing space as they sit just three points above the drop.

The return to fitness of Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin in recent weeks gives the Magpies a much greater chance of surviving this term, coinciding with a slow patch from 18th placed Fulham, this game is a massive opportunity for Steve Bruce to alleviate some of the pressure over his position.

They come into this one as outsiders despite arguably having more to play for than the Clarets who can breathe a little easier, three points above Newcastle in 15th. 


The hosts have been marginally better in terms of expected goals this season, with their defensive solidarity and strong displays from England keeper Nick Pope seemingly enough for them to maintain their topflight status. If it was not for such disastrous seasons from West Bromwich Albion and Sheffield United, these two clubs would be right in the thick of the dog fight but as it stands, Burnley’s toothless frontline will live on. 

They have scored just 24 from 30 games, underperforming from 30 xG, however making up for that with an overperformance in their own third. Dyche’s men have conceded 40, ranking them 12th, from 46.5 xGA, Pope has been as crucial as ever.

Bruce’s defence first approach may trouble a Burnley side not accustomed to having possession. Dyche will be wary of the threat they pose on the counter attack and therefore unlikely to commit too many men forward, a point would be a decent result for the Clarets.

If that pattern of play persists, it may not be a great watch for the neutral. The onus is on the visitors to go for the win, their situation is more desperate, if Fulham can close the gap when they host Wolverhampton Wanderers on Friday evening Bruce will be forced to be more adventurous.


All indicators point towards a low scoring affair, Burnley are well drilled and hard to break down.

  • Burnley have scored in seven of 10.
  • Burnley have conceded in eight of 10.
  • Burnley have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
  • Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
  • Newcastle have scored in seven of 10.
  • Newcastle have conceded in eight of 10.
  • Newcastle have seen both teams score in six of 10.
  • Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.

The draw is tempting at 11/5 best price but with a narrow win either way looking likely, and the pressure Fulham may be able to apply before the weekend, a goals angle suits.

Best Bet

Burnley vs Newcastle – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (5/6 BetVictor)

About Author

I have looked to refine my betting approach recently, using Expected Goals (xG) to try and gain an advantage on the bookmaker. I'm a huge fan of the EFL and top European leagues, and a long-suffering Charlton Athletic supporter.

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