Burnley vs Everton | Saturday 5th December 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
Sean Dyche’s relegation-scrapping Burnley host an Everton side who have fallen away from an eye-catchingly good start to this Premier League season.
Both teams were defeated last time out so this match serves as a chance to get back on the right path, the Toffees come in as strong favourites, for me the value lies with the Clarets who were victorious in their last outing at Turf Moor.
The hosts have only found the net once in their last six matches, they will play to their strengths as always and look to stifle Ancelotti’s men’s flow.
Burnley have been one of the bigger underperformers in the division in terms of Expected Goals (xG), though having said that they are ranked in 18th place for that metric, only one spot higher than in the table. They rank 19th for goals scored and xG for, finishing off four chances to opportunities equating to 7.7 xG goals.
Defence is their strongest area of the pitch, James Tarkowski and Ben Mee are good enough to hold their own against the best defenders in the league, that has helped the Clarets limit the opposition to just 11.8 xG against so far this term, the sixth best record for that term. They have let in 17 goals from that little chances, Everton will do well to score more than one on Saturday.
The Toffees have dropped off massively in their underlying process lately, having led the way in terms of points and Expected Points (xP) after the first stretch of fixtures. They find themselves in 10th according to xG and seventh in table, only winning one of their last six.
Everton have overachieved in an attacking sense, notching 19 from 16.4 xG, the ruthless form of Dominic Calvert-Lewin may qualify for some of that performance, his finishes do seem sustainable though however, clinical from close range. They have one of the worst backlines in the league, ranking 18th for xG against, Burnley could have their day.
- Burnley have scored in just five of 12, conceded in eight of 12 and Both Teams To Score looks a no go, coming off in just three of 12.
- Everton have scored in 11 of 13, conceded in 11 of 13 as well with a BTTS punt coming off in nine of 13.
I am stunned to see Everton widely priced at odds-on in this fixture, they have lost four of their last five, with the only win in that sequence being a close 3-2 over Fulham to which the Cottagers missed a spot kick.
There is value in backing Burnley outright (16/5 Bet365) or Draw No Bet, I will be taking it a little more cautiously, however I expect Dyche’s men to put in a good show nonetheless.