Burnley vs Chelsea | Saturday 31st October 2020, 15:00 | BT Sport Box Office
Sean Dyche’s struggling Burnley host a second consecutive Big Six London club in a week, this time it will be Chelsea, looking to repeat the feat of rivals Tottenham by taking all three points from Turf Moor.
The Clarets are yet to taste victory this season, losing four of their five opening matches, however they have been underperforming their Expected Goals (xG) totals in both defence and offense.
With little value in backing Chelsea at such a short price, I have found a couple of angles that see the Clarets a favourable punt. Though they have only scored once in their last five outings.
In their stint in the Premier League, Turf Moor has been a notoriously tough away day, in the times without the home support they are a different proposition, one that the Blues’ new band of young attacking talent will see as a huge opportunity to press on and break into the top six.
Frank Lampard’s men have not scored in their last two games, including failing to breach a very inconsistent Manchester United defence last time out. In the absence of Ben Mee the Clarets are not as tight at the back, but still pose a strong rearguard action led by England internationals James Tarkowski and Nick Pope. In my eyes the visitors are too short.
Chelsea are running a little hot on their chance conversion, you could say that is what you expect when you invest so heavily in your front line, but drawing a blank in their last two outings already demonstrates a small regression.
The Blues have scored 13 goals in the league from just 9.8 xG, Timo Werner is an enticing anytime goalscorer option (21/20, BetVictor), despite Burnley conceding the least xG against (xGA) in the division, just 5.7.
A result is coming, the hosts have conceded nine goals from the league low 5.7 xGA and only scored three goals from a total of 4.6 xG. Chelsea’s backline has been suspect at the best of times and therefore this match provides an opportunity for Dyche’s men to break their duck in four of the last five games.
The betting angles
To avoid backing Chelsea to win the game outright, give Burnley a goal headstart in the first half on the Asian Handicap. They kept it at 0-0 against Spurs until the 76th minute on Monday night before conceding from a set piece, a goal that would have particularly infuriated Dyche, expect them to ensure no similar event occurs.
The Blues are in the bottom half of the division for goals conceded and have already let in three on two occasions this season, against West Bromwich Albion and more recently Southampton, this is a chance for Burnley to find some form going forward.
Burnley v Chelsea – Burnley +1 1st Half Asian Handicap (7/10 GentingBet)
Burnley v Chelsea – Both Teams to Score (4/5 Bet365)