ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Burnley entertain Bournemouth in the FA Cup on Tuesday.
Burnley vs Bournemouth| Tuesday 9th February 2021, 17:30 | BT Sport
Premier League Burnley welcome Championship side Bournemouth to Turf Moor for an FA Cup meeting on Tuesday with a place in the quarter-finals at stake.
Since Burnley returned to the top-flight in the 2016/17 season, they have won 6 of the 8 meetings between the sides.
Given Burnley are far from safe, Sean Dyche may ring a few changes to give some fringe players a chance to impress, and given his injury woes this campaign, may give his most trusted outfielders a rest.
Bournemouth come into this off a win against Birmingham after an awful run of form which led to the sacking of Jason Tindall. Temporary gaffer Jonathan Woodgate is in charge of the first team here whilst the club hierarchy pursue their next manager and their aim is to return to the Premier League.
Given key men are often missing in the FA Cup their tends to be goals involved. Bournemouth’s last 8 FA Cup games have gone over the 2.5 goal threshold whilst the head-to-head readings from these two sees Over 2.5 cop in 7 of the last 8.
Woodgate’s first game in temporary charge saw a 3-2 thriller at The Vitality as Bournemouth were pegged back twice by Birmingham. Burnley thumped Fulham last time out in the cup and I think we will see at least 3 goals. Over 2.5 is 23/20 best price at Unibet and that looks very tempting at odds-against.
- Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 7/8 most recent head-to-heads.
- Bournemouth’s last 8 FA Cup games have seen Over 2.5 Goals.
- Bournemouth’s last 4 have seen Over 2.5, whilst 4 of Burnley’s last 5 in the FA Cup have gone overs.
The referee appointment is also interesting. Darren England takes charge and he’s one of the few debutants on the Premier League list this season. His card output drops severely in cup competitions though as all have seen Under 30 Booking Points.
Betfair have odds of 10/11 for there to be fewer than three cards given, that’s space for two yellow cards or 1 red card. It’s also 5/6 at Bet365 as Under 2.5 cards which is decent.
I also think it’s a decent game for a longshot on ‘No Booking’ at 13/1 with Betfair. Here’s why:
- England has taken charge of 5 cup games this season, giving just 3 cards.
- His record in the cup this season for yellow cards is: 1, 0, 1, 1, 0
- All of these 5 games have involved a Premier League side, booking just 1 PL side (West Brom)
- Only 1 of his 3 cards in cup matches have come before the 78th (30’, 78’, 88’)
Best Bets
Burnley vs Bournemouth – Over 2.5 Goals (23/20 Unibet)
Burnley vs Bournemouth – Card Index – Under 30 Points (10/11 Betfair)
Burnley vs Bournemouth – No booking (13/1 Betfair)
